opinion | Election predictor

And the winner is ...

IN 2007, statistician Nate Silver applied Sabermetrics—a numbers-based approach to predicting baseball performance—to the presidential election. He successfully predicted the outcomes in 49 states and went on to correctly predict all 35 Senate races that year. This shot him to political fame, because that level of accuracy feels comforting in a situation where the stakes are so high and the outcome so unknowable. But the joy of politics is still unpredictability — for all the guessing and numbers and extrapolation, there is no way to know with certainty what’s going to happen Nov. 6. So, in the Sabermetrics spirit of leaving emotion out of the equation — while also in the cable-news-talking-head spirit of willfully ignoring all data — we bring you a few totally unbiased games with which to predict the 2012 presidential election. Download the high-resolution PDF.


Heather Hopp-Bruce is design supervisor for the Globe’s opinion pages.