Five bits of data. That’s all it takes for IHS Global Insight to predict with uncanny accuracy who will become the next president.
The Lexington economic forecasting firm takes two economic indicators plus three political variables, plugs them into a formula, and out pops the percentage of the popular vote the incumbent party is expected to win. The formula has correctly predicted the outcome in 14 of the last 16 presidential elections, in most cases projecting the vote within a couple of percentage points of the final results.
Comments
Nate Silver's 538 blog is a lot better.