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The Boston Globe

Business

US economy likely to rebound from slow 1st quarter

WASHINGTON — Expect a dreary report Wednesday when the government issues its first estimate of how fast the US economy grew in the January-March quarter. Brutal weather kept consumers and businesses in hibernation for much of the winter and likely slowed growth to a scant annual pace of just 1.1 percent.

Yet thanks to a bounce-back in consumer spending, business investments, and job growth, analysts foresee a strengthening economy through the rest of the year.

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In fact, many say 2014 will be the year the recovery from the Great Recession finally achieves the robust growth that’s needed to accelerate hiring and reduce still-high unemployment.

Most analysts think annual economic growth has rebounded to around 3 percent in the current April-June quarter and will remain roughly that strong through the second half of the year.

If that proves accurate, the economy will have produced the fastest annual expansion in the gross domestic product, the broadest gauge of the economy’s health, in nine years. The last time growth was so strong was in 2005, when GDP grew 3.4 percent, two years before the nation fell into the worst recession since the 1930s.

A group of economists surveyed this month by the Associated Press said they expect unemployment to fall to 6.2 percent by the end of this year from 6.7 percent in March.

One reason for the optimism is that a drag on growth last year from higher taxes and deep federal spending cuts has been diminishing. A congressional budget truce has also lifted any imminent threat of another government shutdown. As a result, businesses may find it easier to commit to investments to modernize and expand production facilities and boost hiring.

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