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POLITICAL HAPPY HOUR: June 19, 2014

Here’s your afternoon dose of politics, from Joshua Miller of the Boston Globe:

JUST IN — GOP GOV HOPEFUL CHARLIE BAKER RESERVES MORE THAN A MILLION AND HALF DOLLARS WORTH OF TV TIME: Republican Charlie Baker, looking toward the final stretch of this year’s gubernatorial race, has reserved more than $1.5 million worth of TV time for advertising this fall.

Campaign manager Jim Conroy said the campaign had reserved about $1.3 million on broadcast television in the Boston and Springfield markets and about $270,000 on cable television statewide for the final six weeks of the campaign.

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While reservations are not ironclad, they offer a template for how a campaign plans to spend money down the line.

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Conroy said it was an initial reservation, and the campaign would likely adjust its TV strategy closer to Election Day.

NEW POLL: SCOTT BROWN TRAILS JEANNE SHAHEEN BY 10 POINTS AMONG LIKELY VOTERS from me on BostonGlobe.com: “... Shaheen leads challenger Scott Brown by 10 points, 49 percent to 39 percent with 9 percent undecided, according to a new poll released today. The Suffolk University/Boston Herald survey found Brown comfortably ahead in his GOP US Senate primary but trailing the Democrat he hopes to unseat. Respondents see Shaheen more favorably than Brown. Fifty-two percent of those polled said they have a favorable opinion of Shaheen ... while 36 percent have an unfavorable view of her. Thirty-five percent have a favorable opinion of Brown ... [while 46] percent of respondents have an unfavorable view of Brown.” http://bit.ly/Tb1CHX

Other key findings from the New Hampshire poll:

•Obama favorable/unfavorable: 45 percent/49 percent

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•Obama job approval/disapproval: 39 percent/ 52 percent

Full poll and crosstabs: http://bit.ly/1sr9R2E

JOBLESS RATE IN MASSACHUSETTS DROPS via Bob Salsberg of the Associated Press in Boston: “The Massachusetts unemployment rate for May dropped to a near six-year low of 5.6 percent, down from 6 percent in the previous month, and initial estimates showed a net gain of more than 9,000 jobs during the month, state officials said Thursday. The jobless rate was the lowest in the state since it stood at 5.5 percent in August 2008 ... ” Link via the Boston Herald: http://bit.ly/1nl9y18

BUT OVERALL JOBS PICTURE IS MORE NUANCED says Evan Horowitz in an analysis on BostonGlobe.com: “[E]ven though it’s getting easier to work, fewer people are trying to find jobs. In a really strong labor market, you’d expect an increase in the number of people looking for work. ... The puzzling thing about this month’s numbers is that the job situation is improving but people still aren’t looking for work. It’s hard to say for certain what is causing this drop in the size of the labor force, but here are three possibilities: Our population is getting older. ... A labor force expansion is just on the horizon. ... The job market isn’t as strong as it seems. ...” http://bit.ly/1iKQ5FD

FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF DELICIOUS CAMPAIGN EVENTS — via Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Don Berwick’s public schedule for Saturday:

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“East Boston Guacfest

187 Everett Street, East Boston

4:30 p.m.”

MASSACHUSETTS 2014 DOWNBALLOT WATCH via Matt Murphy of the State House News Service: “After nearly two months of waiting for Secretary of State William Galvin’s office to produce an accounting of how much money the secretary has spent on public service announcements since he took office two decades ago, Galvin’s Republican challenger David D’Arcangelo is calling ‘outrageous’ the $5,300 bill he has been asked to pay to see the public records. D’Arcangelo ... requested in April copies and cost breakdowns of all the TV advertisements Galvin has run since 1995, calling them ‘flashy, campaign style commercials’ paid for with taxpayer dollars. ... Galvin has routinely ... appeared in television advertisements encouraging people to vote or alerting them to potential securities fraud schemes, and his office has defended the expense as a public service... ” Link via LowellSun.com: http://bit.ly/1lCUCjg

GABRIEL GOMEZ RUNNING — UP A MOUNTAIN from me on BostonGlobe.com: “Former US Senate candidate Gabriel Gomez is running up a mountain again. But it’s not the metaphorical one every Republican vying for statewide office faces in Democratic Massachusetts; it’s an actual peak. A year after Gomez lost the 2013 US Senate special election to Democrat Edward J. Markey, the former Navy SEAL is launching a new summit-racing business with three partners. The company, O2X, will hold ‘eco-friendly, obstacle course, summit challenge races’ starting this September, Gomez said. ... [He] said he doesn’t miss the bloodsport of Bay State elections. ‘...I have no regrets not being in that arena right now...’ ” http://bit.ly/1lKG5fv

FLASHBACK: I interviewed Gomez, a fitness enthusiast, on a run in the final days of his US Senate race. Video via @MrWillRitter:vine.co/v/huhOIdIxi7t

The race is long, the mountain is steep, but sending tips, missives, feedback, and epistles of all types to me is easy: joshua.miller@globe.com

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Joshua Miller can be reached at joshua.miller@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @jm_bos.