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Memo to Baker: This popularity can’t last forever

Six Massachusetts governors gathered outside the Statehouse in Boston for a group photo in 2006. They are (from left) William Weld, then governor-elect Deval Patrick, Michael Dukakis, Jane Swift, Paul Cellucci, and Mitt Romney. Bill Brett/Globe staff/Boston Globe

Governor, you seem to be defying political gravity. Though you won the governor’s office by only a slim margin, polls show you sustaining unprecedented favorable ratings as you wrap up the final months of your first year in office.

But there is a shelf life to high poll numbers, and governors are often the first to feel the wrath of the public’s unrest and frustration. The questions for you are: When does that happen, how hard do you get hit, and how well can you and your political team manage the storm?

History shows a quick, stormy downturn can slide into uncontrollable chaos. The state’s political history is littered with figures who crashed and burned, some tumbling from the sort of poll numbers you have over just a matter of a few months.

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In fact, Charlie Baker, you were there, banging around the State House hallways as a young, bushy-tailed advocate for conservative, no-new-tax policies when Governor Michael Dukakis went off to the presidential trail after a landslide reelection in 1986. Remember how long that lasted? He returned to a brutal political backlash that still haunts his legacy. He left office a hugely unpopular figure.

You were in junior high school, perfecting your air-guitar, when Republican Governor Frank Sargent, one of the most endearing public figures in modern state politics (yeah, more than you), crushed Mayor Kevin White in the 1970 gubernatorial race, even carrying the city of Boston. Remember how that played out? Deep public discontent over a recession and disgust with the GOP over Watergate dragged him down. By 1974, he was swept out of office by Dukakis.

Bet you probably don’t remember this. Jane Swift, the lieutenant governor who took over from Paul Cellucci after he resigned in April 2001, is largely remembered only for her worst months. But before that rocky period, she was getting accolades from the public, charmed by the fact she was the first woman — and even pregnant with twins — to occupy the office. One poll in July of that year found 67 percent of the public viewed her favorably.

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Governor Jane Swift.The Boston Globe/Boston Globe

But Logan Airport’s role in the 9/11 attacks, a nasty battle over her effort to remove two turnpike commissioners, an Ethics Commission fine, and a fiscal crisis quickly put her on shaky ground before year’s end. By early 2002, jittery GOP leaders, convinced she could not win a full term, turned to Mitt Romney — and within weeks she backed out of the race. One poll showed her getting only 12 percent against Romney in a GOP primary.

So, when voters — frazzled to the breaking point by another winter of blizzards or perhaps rattled by a sudden economic decline or state fiscal crisis — eventually take out their frustration on you, what can you do to avoid the fate of those previous governors who left office with ugly public backlashes despite initial sky-high poll numbers?

The question is: How deep is that good will you have built? Unlike your Republican predecessors — William Weld, Cellucci, Swift, and Romney — you have the Democrats on their heels. Sure, they have some unions occasionally screaming at you, but in general the party seems flummoxed over how to challenge you.

Did you notice there was hardly a word of scorn heaped on you at the recent state Democratic convention? Your GOP predecessors were red meat at those conclaves. Or just ask some of the Democrats — some of the major donors, present and former office holders, political activists — who they voted for in last year’s race for governor. And you know right off, when they look over their shoulder, what they are going to say: “Charlie.” To be sure, it is mostly with a sheepish grin.

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Whether you can sustain the good standing with the public — and with those who should be your natural sworn enemies — is partly in your hands. That you may be able to handle. You have nicely displayed what you have learned hanging around the likes of Weld and Cellucci — most important, knowing when to reach across the aisle, when to pick fights, and when to play the partisan hand.

You also have a firm grip on that image as a problem-solving manager and a fixer of broken state agencies — all the while sustaining your affable, earnest, and bipartisan approach to governing and politics. Who ever thought likability would be a strong suit after your sour 2010 race for governor? Those of us who have known you for years knew it was there, but now you are showing it. Getting that awful buzz haircut, wearing the “Free Brady” T-shirt — it actually works for you.

Your leaning into the problems you have inherited burnishes that image. You went right at the MBTA, getting the fiscal control board that you wanted and a study plan for fixing it in hand. And you have laid out your fixes for the troubled Department of Children and Families.

The downside: You are now in charge of a miserably failing public transit system and a child welfare agency out of which come some of the most sickening headlines.

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But you need more than just managing well — as important as it is — and just lecturing local governments to adopt a “series of best practices” to be more efficient, or bragging about the policy reforms and process improvements in state agencies.

You need a second act. Being a good technocrat is not going to cut it when the waters get choppy. Laying out some broad themes and goals could fill that gap in the middle of your public profile. Define your administration in a broader context and themes. Deval Patrick’s legacy will be his work on clean energy and putting the state’s biotech industry on its feet. Weld is remembered for sweeping education and welfare reforms. Cellucci got the assault weapons ban, an income tax roll back, and expanded children’s health care.

But you also need some quick results in the new few weeks, several things that will really broaden your first-year resume and insulate you from future criticism that you can’t get anything done. Make sure this fall the House and Senate send your legislative initiatives to your desk. You have a shot with your bill to raise the cap on charter schools and your plans for renewable energy.

But it is the uncontrollable that threatens to eat away at your standings — the most obvious being the weather and the economy. No one blamed you for the MBTA’s collapse during the worst winter in memory, but as each winter and each blizzard comes, you take more and more ownership of the troubled transit agency.

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And no one is yet blaming you yet for the failure of the state’s child welfare system — and heart-rending deaths that come with it. But at some point it becomes your problem. It pulls at the public’s heart strings and stirs its ire. And can poison the political waters.

When the rough times come, make sure your team around you is sharp enough and on their toes to keep you surfing in front of the tsunami. Your guys seems to work well together. But they have yet to be really tested.

And one other thing: Stay away from the presidential race. You have nothing to gain in this blue state and everything to lose. Most important, your Democratic and unenrolled supporters, who were key to your 2014 victory, will be upset. You will need them in 2018.

Some governors — Romney, with his tightly managed administration and Weld, through his quirky Yankee charm — weathered the political storms, self-inflicted blunders, and minor scandals and were able to leave Beacon Hill in relatively decent shape. Patrick, who had a disastrous first three months in office and a bumpy first term, used his well-honed campaign skills to overcome seemingly impossible polling numbers to win reelection.

So don’t despair. But here’s an idea:

Weld has bought a new house out in Canton. Go out there some night, throw back a few with your political mentor, and get him loosened up with some “amber” colored liquid (not so much that he starts squawking duck calls; there are tapes of that) so he can walk you through the hiccups of governing. He had a real talent for turning mini-scandals into great political lore — drunken poker parties at his home with political cronies, shooting penned-in boars in New Hampshire, and taking phony tax deductions.

But one final word of advice: Don’t drive yourself. Make sure you have a security guy as a designated driver — there is history there.

Frank Phillips can be reached at phillips@globe.com.