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Dave Epstein | On Weather

A spring nor’easter will dump heavy rain on the area this week

Some of the crowd at the March For Science on the Boston Common over the weekend had to use their signs for protection from the rain.Jonathan Wiggs/GlobeStaff/Globe Staff

As April days go, Monday will be one of the best. And as April days go, Tuesday and Wednesday will be two of the nastiest. Spring weather is highly variable, and dramatic shifts in conditions often occur in just a few hours. We’ve had relatively dry springs the past few years, and we are finally starting to make up for some of those deficits.

In the big picture, a spring nor’easter is headed up the eastern seaboard. The moisture from this storm is already gathering along the East Coast. Notice two areas of white, corresponding with moisture. around the Carolinas. The area off the coast has a tropical connection and is part of the reason for the heavy downpours in the forecast.

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Rain will break out across the area Tuesday, but it won’t be heavy. The morning commute may be dry, or just see some light showers. As the day progresses, I expect the rain to become more widespread and heavier. The evening commute will be wet. So will the morning commute Wednesday. The rain will taper late Wednesday afternoon or in the evening. Outdoor field practices are unlikely Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures will be very chilly on Tuesday ahead of the storm. Highs probably won’t reach the 50s in Boston, and will only reach the lower 50s in the interior.

Expect a chilly day for Tuesday.NOAA-Taunton

Tides are astronomically high this week. This will bring some minor coastal flooding during the time of high tide on Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning. Winds won’t be excessively strong, but they will be noticeable, mainly along the coastline. In these situations, there are always shore roads which end up closing. I expect to see some beach erosion, but nothing too major.

Winds will be coming from the ocean on Tuesday.Dave Epstein

How much rain are we talking about? Generally think about this storm as bringing 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in a two-day period. This is enough to create some minor flooding on small streams, poor drainage areas, and inundate some people’s basements. It isn’t enough rain to create major problems.

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Expect 1 to 2 inches of rain from Tuesday morning through Wednesday.NOAA

After this storm, the areas of the state that have been suffering abnormally dry conditions may vanish, but we won’t have that data until early May. This is because the drought measurements are taken Tuesday mornings and that will be before the rain.

Skies will try to clear Thursday. However, clouds will likely dominate through the day, even with some sunny breaks. Friday is also a rather cloudy day. Temperatures will be much warmer at the end of the week, reaching and exceeding 70 degrees for many.

The upcoming weekend appears dry and seasonable, but the pattern is active now, and this could change. So keep in touch with updates to the forecast.


Dave Epstein is on Twitter @growingwisdom