Metro

David Epstein

It’s thunder and it’s lightning, and then perhaps some drying

We may see severe weather in Greater Boston on Monday and Tuesday, but the chances are greater further west.
Jim Davis/Globe Staff/File
We may see severe weather in Greater Boston on Monday and Tuesday, but the chances are greater further west.

Reports have been coming in about the potential for severe weather late Monday and early Tuesday, and while that is certainly the case, the greatest risk is over western New England, not in Greater Boston. This doesn’t mean we won’t see severe weather locally, but the chances are just far greater farther west.

Fog and clouds have plagued the coastline much of the weekend and continued to be an issue Monday morning. As the sun breaks through, this will heat the atmosphere, making it more conducive for storms. I circled the areas already showing signs of thunderstorm development early Monday.

Monday’s satellite shows fog off the coast and storms developing inland.
Monday’s satellite shows fog off the coast and storms developing inland.

High humidity, lots of moisture potential

The air has a lot humidity today, and this means any rainfall could be heavy. This is a tropical air mass, and this type of air allows a lot of water to fall from the sky in a short period of time.

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There is a flash-flood watch posted for the western parts of New England for heavy rain. Some rainfall rates could exceed 2 inches per hour in storms today. This type of rain quickly floods roads and low-lying areas.

Flash flooding is possible over western New England.
Flash flooding is possible over western New England.

Rain should hold off most of the day in Boston

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I expect most of the shower activity to occur east of Route 495 this evening and overnight. We should see the completion of the evening commute before most, if not all, of the showers arrive in Boston. That said, I can’t rule out showers this afternoon ahead of the main area, but they would be widely scattered. When the sun makes an appearance, temperatures will reach into the 80s again.

Less humid weather on the way

Behind this line of showers, somewhat drier air returns to the region. Dew points — which are in the 60s to low 70s Monday — will fall to the lower 60s and eventually 50s by Wednesday. This will feel a lot better than the very sticky air present over us right now.

Once a front pushes east, drier air will move into New England.
Once a front pushes east, drier air will move into New England.

No drought to start summer this year

The weather overall continues to be rather unsettled and changing rapidly. After a rather dry couple of days Wednesday and Thursday, humidity along with a chance of showers will return Friday. If this system keep moving we should clear out and see a nice weekend.

Beyond that, the upper pattern continues to show signs that pieces of atmospheric energy will continue to rotate through the northeast into early July. This doesn’t mean it’s going to rain for the next two weeks, but it does mean it’s unlikely we are going to go into a prolonged period of dry weather anytime soon.

Rainfall is predicted to continue to be average into early July.
Rainfall is predicted to continue to be average into early July.