What a stunning weekend of weather we just had. And that was just part of the incredibly warm October we’ve been having, with most climate sites across New England registering a top-five warmest October so far. With only a week left in the month, it’s likely all of these areas will end up having one of their warmest Octobers ever.
It’s also been dry this month; nearly the entire New England region has had less than an inch of rain. This comes on the heels of a very dry August and September for most areas, and it has resulted in official drought conditions being declared over a significant area.
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All the stunning weather had to come to an end at some point. A cold front to the west of New England on Monday morning will continue to slowly move east, passing off the coast early Thursday. A combination of the slow movement of this front and a strong southerly flow of air will propel very moist conditions into the region.
A period of gusty winds
In addition to the moisture, we’re going to see some strong winds. The models I use to help make this forecast are showing very strong winds just a thousand feet or so above the ground. Some of this intense wind will mix down to the surface on Tuesday night and Wednesday.
With the leaves still on the trees, it won’t take a lot of wind to bring down some branches and cause power outages. We won’t have widespread power issues, but the setup looks potentially volatile enough to warrant mentioning this. Some flights could be delayed Wednesday, but this shouldn’t create widespread cancellations for air travelers.
We are talking about quite a bit of rain, however. Generally the whole region should receive between 1 and 2 inches of rain, but since thunderstorms are also in the forecast, some areas could double those amounts in those heavier downpours.
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Any precipitation slows down the commute, and the heavy rain will have an effect on several upcoming commutes. Tuesday evening’s ride home will feature some showers, but the steadiest rain will not have moved into Greater Boston by then.
However, by Wednesday morning I expect heavy periods of rain and even some thunderstorms on the radar, and this will undoubtedly create a slow morning commute. The evening trek out of Boston and other urban centers will also likely be plagued by periods of heavier downpours.
All the rain will occur during a period of very high humidity. While temperatures won’t be hot, the moisture in the air will make it quite uncomfortable for sleeping on Tuesday night. Later Wednesday, as the front pushes eastward, moisture levels will start to fall. The steadier showers will become more widespread and the air will cool.
By Friday sunshine will dominate, and this lasts into at least Saturday. However, another storm may bring more rain sometime over the second half of the weekend. With this second potential rainstorm, October will end up warm, but could finish not unusually dry, which would be a big swing from the first three weeks of the month.
Follow Dave Epstein on Twitter @growingwisdom.