WASHINGTON — Republicans count enough competitive races to challenge Democrats for control of the Senate in the 2014 elections, if only they can figure out what to do with the Tea Party movement.
Crowded primaries in states such as Georgia, Iowa, and North Carolina, where Tea Partiers and social conservatives are fighting for the nomination and pushing candidates farther right, worry many Republicans, especially after they saw their legitimate shots at a Senate majority slip away in 2010 and 2012.
Republicans need a net gain of six seats to capture control from Democrats, who effectively hold a 55-to-45 advantage now. But Democrats will be defending 21 of 35 seats to be decided in November, and President Obama is looking like a major drag for them.
Midterm elections are often tough for a president’s party in any event.
“History is with us, geography is with us, and the president’s signature legislative achievement is the most unpopular” law of his tenure, Rob Collins, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said of Obama and his health care overhaul.
Republicans inside and outside the Senate speak confidently about snatching open seats in West Virginia and South Dakota.
They like their chances against Democratic incumbents in Republican-leaning Arkansas, Louisiana, and Alaska, and remain upbeat about Montana even if Governor Steve Bullock, a Democrat, names Lieutenant Governor John Walsh to succeed Senator Max Baucus, Obama’s choice for US ambassador to China.
The looming question is whether Republicans undercut their solid shot with Tea Party-style candidates who fizzled out in Delaware, Colorado, and Nevada in 2010 and Indiana and Missouri in 2012.
Georgia is keeping some Republicans awake at night. Eight candidates, including three House members, are pursuing the open seat of retiring two-term Senator Saxby Chambliss in a state that dramatically went Republican in 1994 and rarely has looked back. Georgia hasn’t elected a nonincumbent Democrat since 1998.
A loss of the GOP seat would complicate any Republican math for a majority.
The top Democratic hopeful is Michelle Nunn, CEO of the volunteer organization Points of Light and daughter of Sam Nunn, former senator.
The younger Nunn’s diligence gets high marks from Democrats and Republicans. She has raised more than $1.7 million and campaigned with a purpose.
While more attention has focused on Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, who is challenging Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky, in the marquee race of the cycle, Republicans say Nunn is the real deal.
Republicans are nervous about Representative Paul Broun, who has said evolution and the Big Bang theory are “lies straight from the pit of Hell.”
Although the four-term Georgia congressman has avoided incendiary comments in his latest campaign, several Republicans privately fret about him winning the nomination.
Looking to seize the edge in the free-for-all primary, Broun recently pounded rival Representative Jack Kingston, considered more moderate, after Kingston suggested that Obama’s health care law could be fixed. Kingston quickly backtracked on an issue that resonates with core GOP voters.