For political prognosticators, their day of reckoning has arrived. Some are gloating about accurate predictions of the presidential election; others are red-faced.

The New York Times’s Nate Silver, a celebrity in the world of predictive modeling, is looking smart. On his blog, ­FiveThirtyEight (named for the total number of electoral votes), Silver correctly called the winner in 49 states and the District of Columbia. In Florida, the 50th state, President Obama holds a narrow lead over Mitt Romney but has not yet been declared the winner. Silver forecast an Obama win.