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Evan Horowitz | Quick Study

At debate, Trump brings the crowd. Can Clinton win them over?

Donald Trump (left) and Hillary Clinton.AFP/Getty Images

Monday’s showdown between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump could draw as many as 100 million viewers, making it the most-watched presidential debate since 1980.

The reason? People can’t look away from one of the most unpredictable and un-ignorable candidates in modern election history. But if Trump draws them in, it may be Hillary Clinton who wins them over.

Trump’s forte is attention-getting. When it comes to creating a sense of spectacle, he’s a true master. His mere presence at last season’s Republican primary debates helped triple the number of viewers, compared with 2012. And his darkling speech at the Republican national convention attracted more eyeballs than anything the Democrats could produce.

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Clinton has no such talent for pageantry. But she still has one big advantage going into the debate: When people see her in action, they like what they see and her poll numbers rise.

Consider her high-profile speech at the Democratic National Convention. It may have drawn fewer viewers than Trump, but it had a bigger impact — turning her one-point deficit into a (short-lived) 8-point lead in the polls.

Or think back to last October, when Clinton’s popularity had ebbed in her primary race against Bernie Sanders and the other Democratic contenders. With two widely seen displays of her working competence — first a debate against her challengers and then her much-praised appearance before the House Committee investigating Benghazi — she turned her fortunes around with a 10-point bump in the polls.

Trump, too, has sometimes been able turn media attention into polling gains. His controversial campaign announcement last June quickly propelled him into the primary lead, and the first primary debate sparked a roughly 7-point boost.

In recent months, though, he’s had a harder time wringing gains out of high-stakes moments. His convention bounce was far smaller than Clinton’s. And more generally, his polling numbers have stayed within a very narrow range, oscillating between 39 and 42 percent of the vote.

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Ironically, the issue for Trump may be that he’s too good a showman, spending so much time in the spotlight that he has already reached a saturation point.

With Clinton, things are different. She sometimes disappears from the media radar for long stretches. Not only does she seem to get less coverage overall, but the coverage she gets seems more tuned to her past — such as her use of a private e-mail server or the actions of the Clinton Foundation.

In short, Clinton’s daily words and actions don’t get Trump-level prominence. And that may actually give her an advantage at the debate, because it means she has an opportunity to remind people who she really is and what she stands for.

Debates are a rare thing in today’s media market, an occasion when you can gain attention for being knowledgeable and competent — looking unflappable as your opponent flaps away. That strategy won Clinton plaudits in her appearance before the Benghazi committee, and with 100 million viewers potentially tuning in, it could win her votes Monday night.

Trump may have to do something different to capitalize on this opportunity. Dial down his histrionics and prove he has the temperament to be president, for instance. Or wheedle Clinton in hopes of making her crack in a public way (remember Marco Rubio’s campaign-ending repetitions, for instance.)

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But absent some sudden change in demeanor, debate watchers are likely to see some version of the same Trump they see everywhere — which makes it harder for him to win new support.

Perhaps none of this really matters, in the end. Debates have rarely affected the November result, even though they sometimes cause a short-term shift in the polls. Even a big win for Trump or Clinton Monday night could fade before November — or be erased at their next debate.

But this has been a race of surprises: the staying power of Trump, the threat posed by Sanders, the first major-party female presidential candidate. It’s possible we’re about to witness another: the first modern contest to be truly upended by a prime-time debate.


Evan Horowitz digs through data to find information that illuminates the policy issues facing Massachusetts and the U.S. He can be reached at evan.horowitz@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @GlobeHorowitz