KABUL — It may be over a year away, but Afghanistan’s presidential election is fast becoming a lightning rod for the nation’s highest hopes and darkest fears, including predictions of conflict and collapse.

Everyone here agrees that a credible electoral process and a peaceful transfer of power will be crucial to the government’s survival in an era of vastly reduced foreign aid and protection. The election has been scheduled for April 2014, amid the final pullout of American combat troops and a possible spring offensive by the Taliban.