It may not be clear before Election Day who will win the White House or which party will control the House and Senate. But here’s a prediction that’s all but ironclad, and reflects a largely unappreciated change that could have just as much influence on the direction of the country: After the election, white men will constitute a minority of the Democratic House caucus for the first time in history.
This milestone is part of a broader trend that goes well beyond politics. The United States is expected to become a “majority-minority” nation within 30 years. That trend is being reflected in the Democratic congressional caucus, but only barely on the Republican side. In 1950, white men made up 98 percent of Democrats and 97 percent of Republicans in the House; today, 86 percent of Republicans are white men, but only 53 percent of Democrats.