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The Boston Globe

Opinion

Jeff Jacoby

The higher-ed bubble will inevitably burst

‘If you want to go to college,” my mother said, “you’ll have to get a scholarship.”

Luckily, I did. I was admitted to George Washington University, which generously awarded me a grant covering the full cost of my tuition. To the best of my recollection, that sum was $2,400 in 1975, the year I entered GW. To pay for my other expenses there were several forms of need-based financial aid, and I received what is now called a Pell Grant and a subsidized work-study job on campus.

Comments

Please please please let it burst sometime, any time in the next 7 semesters!

Again, you leave out facts.  What about the fact that government support for public higher ed over the same time period has dropped significantly?  What about the "formula" used at the state level to divvy up the tuition dollars to the various state institutions, keeping in mind that tuition is only a very small percentage of the actual cost of going to college?    

Jeff just what are you saying?  You received help from your government to get a solid education.  The President improved those payouts by cutting out the bank middle man.  He has also taken universities to task and has urged them to cut costs.  However what should be cut?  Teachers, researchers, administrators?  Since you went to college more students are attending so inflation will not explain everything.  Further new information and more opened opportunities exist than in 1975.  The extreme right puts blinders on when it comes to recognizing the world has progressed.  To take advantage of those new discoverys is more costly.  Without doubt some efficiencies are needed but one must be careful about slashing away at an economic engine both within itself and also outside its campases. Maybe if Jeff stopped opening the Heritage Foundation's emails or mail he would look around a little more and note that the 1970s have passed by.

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I rarely agree with Jacoby, but here he's spot on. The simple point is that the cost of college may be so much higher than its intrinsic value that it begins to look like a world of over-priced houses, fueled by not the need for shelter but the need to fulfill a well-accepted dream. The American dream is to own a home, picket fence and all, and send your kids to college. We know what happened to the first part of the dream. A college education will be of economic benefit to those few who can do something special with it, who stand out in some way. It works for those few studying the hard sciences and engineering. It works for the students at the most selective colleges, in large part because it gives them access to a network of successful people. But it doesn't do much for the majority of college grads. Forget for a minute the 50% (80% in Boston's community collges)who enter but don't graduate. Of those who do persevere, studies show that as much as 40% of them cannot find work that uses their degree or pays them enough of a premium to cover the costs of that degree. The top half of earners who didn't go to college makes more than the bottom half of earners who did. Fewer than 30% of Americans have historically earned a bachelors degree. The vast majority of the remaining 70% have somehow found their way, attaining in the main and perhaps to their chagrine the first part of the American dream with relative ease.

Absolute baloney.  According to U.S. News, the average lifetime earnings based on how much education one has are: High School - $1.3 Million; Some College: $1.55 Million; Bachelors - 2.27 Million; Masters - 2.67 Million; PHD - 3.25 Million; Professional Degree - 3.67 Million. / / / Even if you assume the value of earning a degree is just the economic benefit, which is a very foolish assumption, it still makes tremendous sense to get as much education as you can.  

Here's an idea... How about mandating that colleges spend 20% or their endowment annually on tuition reduction. Check out this list of the largest endowments... (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_colleges_and_universities_in_the_United_States_by_endowment) Take Harvard for example... Endowment size $31B. Incoming freshmen class 1700 (est). Tuition, fees, room and board $57,000. Total cost of tuition for all incoming freshmen, $94M. As a percentage of its endowment, .3%.

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How about mandating that all corporations and those earning more than a million a year pay their fair share of taxes so we can buy down the national debt? The fact is, and I know this well from personal experience, anyone paying full tuition at one of the schools on your list can well afford it. The majority of students pay far less than the official sticker price as a result of grants funded by the endowment.

Why don't we have Corporations and millionaires pay every penny they earn in taxes and when it covers the government's spending for 15 days, you can come up with a solution for the other 350 days. And while we're at it why don't we have the 50% of the population that doesn't pay a penny in income tax chip in some money too.

this bubble will burst, another trillion dollars the tax payers will be on the hook for, great. The more government intervenes, the higher college costs go. We never learn, the housing bubble is a good indication of the result of government intervention.

 

You know the sad part of this mess Jeff, it just doesn't matter anymore, it's very discourging to watch what's happening in our country, my new motto, If you can't beat em, join em. It's not about country anymore, our attitude now is what can country do for me, our downfall continues.

 

 

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I feel very sorry for you, perhaps nearly as sorry as you obviously feel for yourself. I'd suggest you seek to develop both a sense of perspective and a sense of humor. If necessary seek help. This nation, and indeed all humanity, have faced far, far more dire circustances than our present conditions, and have always survived, and in some cases even triumphed, but those triumphs were never lead or even enjoyed, by those surrendered to dispair.

geo, I certainly don't feel sorry for myself, I feel sorry for America. I'm just discouraged at what's happening to us, hard to keep a positive note everyday, I try, it's becoming harder. And no, I don't need to seek help, can handle life's troubles, been doing it for 58 years.

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How can American colleges and universities expect their alumni to contribute when they are saddled with debt. Gives new meaning to, "I gave at the office."

Jeff overlooks the one basic fact regarding the cost of college.  That is the commercializing of everything in this nation that was once based upon the idea of "calling".  When I was young educators educated as it was their calling.  Doctors doctored as it was what they were called to do.  Universities received large endowments in the belief that higher education led to a better nation, a better civilization.  Now what is the driving force behind higher education.  Profits.  Enerything is for sale.  Education, health heck we even sell water. The concept that a man does something purely for the sake of doing it is now some quaint thought from the past.  Educating the populace is no longer a societal goal it is a profit goal.  A non-profit university such a quaint idea.  Folks such as youself Jeff, I've got to give you credit.  You have indeed made human beings a commodity, a resource, a way to make buck. 

When I started to read Jeff's column, I eagerly awaiting the paragraph in which it had to be government's fault. You know, everything bad in the world is government's fault. I mean if only government would go away, all things would become better. Even the Lindberg baby would come back. Keep on writing to formula, Jeff. I'm pretty sure the government can't stop you.

Jeff is, of course, correct once again.  The primary cause of the inflation in school costs has been all the money thrown at it in various forms.  The question no knows the answer to, is what will the bursting bubble look like?  People willl always have to go to college, but at some point, the cost will exceed reasonable demand.  I do not know the answer.

 

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The bursting bubble will more likely be a slowly deflating bubble. It will be seen by things like the scaling back of costly perks (the fancy dining halls and dorms, for example), a move to more students attending community college or technical school and a complete failure of the for-profit colleges that do nothing more than take money from students and from the government.  

Does Jacoby ever write about anything which is not already blindingly obvious to everyone else?

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No one else in the Globe does!! They are all so left leaning.  Jacoby stands alone. 

Jeff - Sad but true.  People look for a return on investment when paying tuition.  Unfortunately does not have the jobs to make that return.  To make matters worse of the fewer jobs available most require a college degree if not more.  By not attending college we will continue to see erosion of the middle class.  The only jobs available to people without a degree will be low paying service jobs.


It is ironic that in today's Globe there is another article stating that the US has fewer people going to college on a per capita basis than most developed countries.  This does not bode well for us as a country

 

I'm not sure what you're advocating for or against. Perhaps you're just sending a word of caution. Regardless, there is overwhelming and irrefutable data to support the significant economic benefits of obtaining a college degree. Just in terms of salary, the "College Premium" -- the wage differential between college graduates and high school graduates — is significant and continues to widen. Thirty years ago, college graduates made 40 percent more than high school graduates, but now the gap is about 83 percent. This goes for virtually any job in the labor chain -- from a cashier to a CEO. I would also point out that recent research proves that jobs which required a bachelor’s degree have advanced by over 2 million since the recession began. Those jobs that required only some college or an associate’s degree declined by 1.8 million. At the same time over 5.8 million jobs for those with high school or less have been completely lost since the recession began. Yes, college may be an economic burden, but if you choose wisely, education may prove to be an economic boon.

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True.  According to U.S. News, the average lifetime earnings based on how much education one has are: High School - $1.3 Million; Some College: $1.55 Million; Bachelors - 2.27 Million; Masters - 2.67 Million; PHD - 3.25 Million; Professional Degree - 3.67 Million. / / / Even if you assume the value of earning a degree is just the economic benefit, which is a very foolish assumption, it still makes tremendous sense to get as much education as you can. 

Some of the problem is lying with statistics. For a long time, folks with advanced education were much the minority. They made more money than folks without a high school or college degree, but what else do we know about them. I bet they were more ambitious, more resourceful, perhaps richer, better connected politically, came from successful families, perhaps healthier. So was it the advanced degree that provided the income, or other factors? So which came first and which is the real driving force? Look at the success of folks who have dropped out of Harvard. They had a lot going for them without the degree. So now we require degrees for all sorts of jobs and we pay more for those jobs, so it all becomes a self fullfilling situation.

$2400 tuition in 1975 at GW.  What was the corresponding average salary/benefits package then for your  professors compared to 2012?  Might that be one large piece of the puzzle for skyrocketing costs?

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Indeed, some facts in this column would have been nice. Where do the increased costs come from?  How is the money used?  What, exactly, is going on.  All we get is a vague assertion that government is to blame.

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There are only two great "Cost Plus" industries left in our country: 1. College 2. Professional Sports Teacher/Player salaries go up since there are relatively no market forces in play with teachers' and players' unions (+free agents). Tuition and ticket prices necessarily increase as costs to colleges and team owners escalate. Medicine of course was the last cost plus industry to fall to a combination of regulations and "rights", and we see where that's all headed. Beware BU and Bosox, there really is a pricing point out there!

This is a well-balanced piece. On the one hand, the money we are talking for a college degree is truly mind-boggling and outrageous. On the other, it's more important than ever to have a strong education. (the unemployment rate for colledg grads in in the 4% range, much lower than national average). What scares me is that everyone will hunker down and only study subjects with large and measurable payoffs. My background is in English, computer science, and business. The business and CS background certainly help pay the bills, but the English background is the one I value most.

We can blame a good part of today's tuition prices on students and their parents. Their criteria for choosing a school are based more on living accommodations, $multi-million student unions, gourmet dining and $multi-kazillion athletic facilities than on simply getting a good education. Look at Southern New Hampshire University's bare-bones Nashua campus where tuition and fees are still less than $12K/year. No athletic complex, no gourmet dining, no fancy student union--just a good education. This model works. When students decide that they can forgo the amenities in order to receive an affordable education a big part of the financial problem will be solved.

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You are wrong.  Tuition and fees at Southern New Hampshire University are $28K a year.  

Yes, they are. But not at the Nashua campus.

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Agreed that costs can't keep increasing at a rate faster than income.  I disagree that this means that fewer people should be getting degrees.  Does anyone think fewer people should be getting high school degrees?  If anything, the need for education is growing and growing.  I have heard that to some extent, the price that has been rising so much is the "sticker" price and this is done by schools to 1) signal that what they have is valuable and 2) give them more latitute to charge different rates to students based on their ability to pay.  I'm not sure to what extent this erases the gains in cost over inflation over the years.  But obviously the costs can't continue to increase forever.  Education in the US , in my opinion (both college and before), is a field that is ripe for disruption.  The music industry, the newspapers, books etc have all been turned on their heads because of technology, why shouldn't education be next?  Some top universities are leading this charge themselves: www.coursera.org.  If government giving students money only contributes to the skyrocketing costs of education, perhaps government should offer a money prize (similar to space X prize) to a company that can produce the best teaching and accreditation resource at a reasonable cost.  I think it will all happen eventually, just hope it all gets here before my two kids reach college age.

Where does all that money go?  If you want to know, check out the compensation for teaching and admin staff at UMASS.    Appalling.

Maybe if the kids didn't have gorgeous new dorms and state of the art dining commons and other "really cool" amenities some of the costs would come down. Yes, facilities do need to be maintained, and re-built when necessary, but you look around at some of these campuses you think, um...was all this REALLY necessary??

You're wrong, Jeff.   In our bifrucated economy, a university education provides a path to the "knowledge worker" tier, and away from the lower"service worker" tier.   However, is it worth $300,000.00 - $400,000.00 (taxes included)?   No.

Once you get beyond the Ivy League schools, and maybe the next top 10, all the rest deliver pretty much the same value.   The course of study one selects makes a HUGE difference, as does co-operative education experience.

A university education is definitely worth the investment, but one must calculate the return-on-investment first to determine its worth.

 

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"bifurcated"

 

When I graduated with my 4-year civil engineering undergraduate degree in 1976, my all in cost for my senior year, including tuition, room and board, was $3,650.  And my starting salary was $10,600.  I thought at the time that was a great deal!  Same school today is greater than $50,000/yr., and starting salaries are less than that! 

Back in the 1970's, my professors had to take jobs in their respective fields to make ends meet, they were unable to pay their bills on their teacher's salary alone.  My how times have changed....now "professors" teach 2 or 3 classes a week, maybe, and spend most of their time "doing research", whatever that means?....and are paid as much as $120,000 and up for what amounts to part-time work at best. 

This bubble is already bursting.....the fallout should result in many colleges closing their doors and going out of business.  Serves them right for being the greedy pigs that they have become!  Shame on them for putting so many families into deep debt.....Correction....Shame on those same families for buying into the thinking that junior can go to any school he/she wants, even if we and they can't afford it.  If you and your sons and daughters are now stuck with massive student loans, it serves you right.....you should have shopped for college the same way you shop for anything else.....wait.....maybe you did.....you also probably can't afford the house you live in, or the car you drive!

Don't blame the high cost of a college diploma solely on the college....they deserve plenty of the finger pointing for sure, but if suck-up parents who give their kids anything they want had been any good at math, they would have placed the affordability of a college education at the top of the list, then worked down from there.  And if Mom and Dad can only afford to send their kids to a school that costs less than $10,000/yr., so be it....and act accordingly!!!!  Can hardly wait to see how these same lame parents "survive" their retirement some day......stay tuned...........

 

 

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Another example of the goverment getting involved and screwing everything up.  The government thought  everyone needed a college education, so the federal government made loan money readily available.  Kids scooped up the money and colleges inflated their tuitions!!  The same happened with the housing bubble.  The government (Barney and friends) thought everyone needed to buy a home.  Home mortgages were available to everyone and now people can't pay them.  Many liberals now think the government has to do more when government involvement was the problem in the first place.

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Everyone does need a college education, though not all can afford, benefit from, or even want one. / / / College is about far more than just getting a job, it's about expanding horizons, thinking critically, and developing effective communication skills. Perhaps with a better educated electorate our political landscape wouldn't be the simplistic, left vs. right, conservative vs. liberal shouting match its been reduced to, but would instead be a nuanced dialogue between creative minds seeking reasonable solutions to the complex issues that face our nation.

More should be done to rein in costs of college, but I would like some evidence that colleges cynically raised their rates to "soak up" the available government funds.    Did the amazingly effective GI Bill post WW II have a similar effect?   Any data to support your assertion, or are your running on correlation = causation here?

Meanwhile have a look at these quotes:

Two excerpts from today’s (TODAY’S JEFF!) US News and World Report:

 “…86 percent of college grads found college worth the cost.”

“….a lifetime of work, the typical college graduate earns $650,000 more than the typical high school graduate.  The study also found that college graduates have more stable employment, so that's a benefit, too.”

It appears that improved lifetime income and job quality translate into other dimensions of life, this from the Wall Street Journal:  “Across the board, college-educated people had lower divorce rates than people with less education.”

More should be done to rein in costs of college, but I would like some evidence that colleges cynically raised their rates to "soak up" the available government funds.    Did the amazingly effective GI Bill post WW II have a similar effect?   Any data to support your assertion, or are your running on correlation = causation here?

Meanwhile have a look at these quotes:

Two excerpts from today’s (TODAY’S JEFF!) US News and World Report:

 “…86 percent of college grads found college worth the cost.”

“….a lifetime of work, the typical college graduate earns $650,000 more than the typical high school graduate.  The study also found that college graduates have more stable employment, so that's a benefit, too.”

It appears that improved lifetime income and job quality translate into other dimensions of life, this from the Wall Street Journal:  “Across the board, college-educated people had lower divorce rates than people with less education.”

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That's just it-- if you asked me if my college and graduate degrees were "worth it" I would not know how to answer. If you just look at the numbers of what I make vs. what my parents spent and my monthly loan payments, the answer is clearly no. However, my career requires an edcuation, not only on paper but in function. I wouldn't be happy in a career that didn't require some level of academic-type knowledge. Secondly, I just love learning. Yes, there are students who go to college and just want the degree and do the bare minimum to get it, but a lot of people are just academic types. I didn't go to a great high school, and when I did go to a great college, I could not have been more excited more of the time just by the stuff I was learning in class. Most of that stuff doesn't relate directly to my career, but I am a better person for knowing it. In addition, college just opened me up to a world of people I wouldn't have otherwise met and learned from. We can't just live in bubbles only having knowledge that directly relates to how we get paid. Some people would prefer to live like this and for them I say, you should not HAVE to go to college to support yourself. But for the people who think college will be "worth it" even though the money doesn't line up, they have to be able to afford it, and they have to make enough money after college to make the loan payments.

I agree that college is not for everyone and shouldn't be. If you have no interest in academics, you should be able to earn a living without going to college (you may need other training of course, but I'm talking about 4-year, academically focused college). However, college is more than just an investment for the kids who really want higher education and/or want to enter a field/profession that actually does require knowledge of arts and sciences. There's been a lot of media attention recently about the high cost of college and student's resulting debt, and very rightly so, but too much focus is on the idea of college as an "investment." There are many, many kids out there who know they want to be teachers or scientists or non-profit lawyers, and they know that their salaries will not align with the cost of their education, but they shouldn't be disuaded from getting that education and being the best teachers, scientists, and non-profit lawyers they can be. There are a lot of kids who will end up in a more vocational field when it comes to making a living--heck, there are a lot of people who will become stay at home parents--but that doesn't make their education worthless. Very few people's undergratuate education relates directly to a profession and if you say that it's not worth it for all those people to go to college, you're going to have a very uneducated society. The cost of college is too high--everyone can agree on that and something clearly has to be done to bring costs down. But I think we also need to think more about the relative wages in our economy and how much the most educated are paid relative to what they spent on school (not only in money, but also in effort, intelligence, performance, etc). Everyone knows there's currently a large wage premium paid for attending college vs. not attending college, but I am willing to bet that premium shrinks if you look grades earned, academic level of the school, additional graduate degrees, etc.