Obama barely showed up at the first presidential debate earlier this month. But if he felt complacent, there might have been a reason: On Oct. 3, the day of that fateful debate, statistics whiz Nate Silver was predicting that Obama had an 86.1 percent chance of winning the race. Silver’s assessment helped fuel Democrats’ giddiness about Obama’s seemingly inevitable victory.
Unlimited access to BostonGlobe.com for only 99 cents for the first 4 weeks.Sign up
Are you a home delivery subscriber?
Get FREE access as part of your print subscriptionStart Here
Contact us for help