The Catholic religion has its own profession of faith. Politicians and pundits need one too, and it should begin, “I believe in the power of polls . . .” The meaning of the 2012 election will likely be subject to interminable argument. The Tea Party, for instance, believes it proved “weak-kneed Republicans do not get elected.” Others think the contrary — hard-right posturing threatens to marginalize the party altogether. But one thing it seems all sides should acknowledge: Pollsters know what they’re doing.
On election morning, New York Times blogger Nate Silver predicted 313 electoral votes for Obama along with a popular vote favoring the president 50.8 percent to 48.3 percent. The Real Clear Politics average of polls just before the election showed Obama up by 0.7 points. The Signal looked at the same polls and predicted at least 303 electoral votes for Obama. The Huffington Post’s national tracking model estimated a 1.1 point Obama edge. Nate Cohn of the New Republic reached similar conclusions. The actual results: Obama received 50 percent of the popular vote and 332 electoral votes. In essence, all of these folks were right on the mark.
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The same can be said for the stock market - it's barkers offering their own polls. You don't need the 'analysis' so many Wall Steet firms make such handsome livings on. You only need to look at the statistics and even then you need a wide angle lens. After all, the last economic crash was driven by a frenzied assumption that housing prices are always going to go up. If you look at the coming die-off of the baby-boom in the U.S. over the next 20 years, you might want to wonder just how much economic "growth" there is in the U.S. economy that's based on other factors than their 70-year consumption binge.
A lot of folks prefer their emotions to the hard facts. I did great in the market over the last four years simply following the numbers. Did well on the election too. No politics. Just numbers.
I got a call at 6pm from MASSGOP begging me to help at the polls and vote. Either they were blindly calling residents or they fail completely to understand that when you unenroll from a party on election day 2000 after 30+ years and never re-enroll, you're probably hot in their court. The GOP failure to understand that there are valid viewpoints other than theirs has been and will continue to be its undoing.
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The GOP blew it. Dick Morris should be fired from fox. He made up random stuff to appeal to white people.
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This was just more magical thinking from our Republican friends. They have become so convinced that simply denying a fact will make it go away that they couldn't see the truth if it walked up and kissed them. These are the same people who refuse to accept the possibility the climate is changing. These are the same people who are rewritting history and science textbooks to suit their religious and political agendas.
Also, did Karl Rove did not even bother to go after the Latino vote. It's like they cherry picked what they wanted to hear.
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You gotta love the folks who pull out the statistics and say "we won" because - oh wait they didn't win. As long as the Party keeps up with this social conservative nonsense most of us will not return.