With Barack Obama’s successful bid for a second term, the conventional wisdom is the Republican Party is dead. Don’t believe it. Such obituaries for political parties have been written many times before — in 1972 after Richard Nixon trounced George McGovern; in 1980 when Ronald Reagan crushed Jimmy Carter; in 1988 when George H.W. Bush routed Michael Dukakis; in 1992 with Bill Clinton’s win over Bush — and they’ve all turned out to be untrue. So too this time around. For one, the magnitude of the 2012 GOP loss is just not that great, a matter of small, correctable things and not a wholesale rejection of its small government message. For another, party members are chastened. You may not agree with them, but they’re not stupid — and they’ll fix what went wrong. Resurrection is near.
Not in the Bay State, however. Massachusetts, as commentator Jon Keller has observed, is “the bluest state,” and we showed that to a fare-thee-well this time around. Seriously: If scandal-plagued Representative John Tierney can’t be beaten by a gay, moderate Republican, then the GOP’s hopes of resurgence in the Commonwealth are about as likely as David Petraeus being named “Husband of the Year.” Sure, we might well elect a Republican governor in two years. But the state GOP will continue to operate on the margins.

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no it's not dead and neither is journalism but you'd never know that around here. ma
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Right you are, Tom, both with regard to the life left in the national Republican party and the lack thereof in the Massachusetts GOP. But just as the Democrats mustn't get complacent, Republicans must consider some factors working against them in 2016:
(1) The next Democratic nominee will be not be black, so there will be fewer whites voting for the Republican because of the race of the Democrat. Plus race will not be as much of a motivating factor bringing out the Republican base.
(2) The demographics are getting worse for the Republicans as time goes on: more blacks, Hispanics, Asians, non-Christians. And the current crop of conservative old people is being replaced by the next, more socially liberal, generation.
(3) The current Democratic party, led by the very moderate Barack Obama, has moved so far to the political center that there isn't much room for the current Republican party to move leftward without very soon looking like the Democrats. Witness the third presidential debate, in which Mitt Romney couldn't think of anything to say except, "I agree with the president." Unless the electorate were to take a sudden and unexpected lurch to the right, expect left-leaning constituencies like women and young people to stick with the Democrats.
(4) The economy, already much better than it was when Obama took office, will be much better still in four years. The two big arguments the Republicans had against Obama, that the economy under his stewardship recovered from the Great Recession more sluggishly than it should have, and that he didn't bring the deficit down as much as he should have, will be gone.
Bottom line: Expect Columba Bush to speak at the 2016 Republican National Convention and blurt out, "We love you HISPANICS!!!" And it will work just as well as it did with Ann Romney and women.
"the very moderate Brack Obama"? Dear Lord. I guess his fellowship with Jeremiah Wright, William Ayers, and other radicals is the new moderate.
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I think Rubio is another Perry, who looks good on the surface, but who will expose himslf once he starts to talk. He's already going down the creationist road, denying that the world is more than 10 thousand years old (actually now denying that he's denying it, by saying "I'm not a scientist"). This non-acceptance of science route will come out in so many issues and so fast, that this guy will look like a Perry mental lightweight very quickly, and he'll be gone in a flash. I reaaly believe that the electorate is getting fed up with the arrogance and hubris of all these religious idiots who think God has singled them out, exclusively, as His messenger.
I had held a cautiously positive impression of Senator Rubio until I also read about his views on the age of the planet. If he is capable of denying the vast amount of scientific evidence, then he is not someone who should be President, ever. If on the other hand, he knows perfectly well that the earth is billions of years old, then he is a shameless panderer.
The remarks about Romney's charisma or lack thereof shows just how shallow the electorate has become. Please tell me what charisma - ill defined at best - serves a vital function in determining a candidate's fitness for office. Where does it stand up on a list with other features - integrity, courage, accomplishments and policies. The American education systems failure to perform its duties has resulted in an electorate seriously unable to make reasoned choices. This, I'm sure, is not a Republican or Democrat issue. Neither side has consistently put forth the best candidates for many offices. How accomplished is Kennedy the new congressional representative? Does he have any record outside of public service? I'm sure that is the case with candidates and elected officials with "R" beside their name as well.
"The remarks about Romney's charisma or lack thereof shows just how shallow the electorate has become." Romney lacks charisma, regardless if it can be defined (I've seen it a few times, and it does exist) but blaming the electorate, or the media, for the party's failure to nominate winning candidates only highlights the GOP's core problem: their disconnect between reality and results. To paraphrase the Clinton campaign - "It's the Platform, Stupid."
No, the Republican Party is not dead. The re election of Barack Obama in 2012 is as anomolous as his victory in 2008. In the first election he was a charasmatic man with no qualifications or record to justify his candidacy. In 2012, he was a charasmatic failed president who was still able draw out millions of voters, by promising all kinds of loot to the special interests. Romney was not a perfect candidate, it is unlikely that any Republican could have won.
The pendulumn will swing back to normal. After all, what are the chances the Democrats will find another community organizer, part time law instructor to run? Obama was a historical anamoly. We will survive his wrath, and the GOP will lead the way in returning our nation to sanity.
The current Republican version of sanity as expressed in its planks, is insanity. That is the problem.
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Dead, it's not dead. It is not even on life support. What it is however is full of crazed children. The religious right and the social conservatives have driven the party out into the backwoods of West Virginia. The majority of the country isn't into snake handling nor do we want our women bare foot and pregnent. Nor does the American public want an end to SS, Medicare, unemployment and a corporate America run amok. Does that mean the Republican Party can't still be for small or at least efficient government. Of course not. What the Party needs to develop is a 21st century brain.
What the polls didn't show were how many of us who voted for RR or the elder Bush would never vote for a Republican Presidential nominee with current batch of lunaics in the House. I can accept mouthing the words the Tea Party, the religious right and the social conservatives love to hear just as RR did, but if you are going to act on their desires you cannot get the moderate vote.
There are many fiscal consrvatives out here who believe in fair taxes, which can mean they go up, and paying our bills. We have however no interest in the sex life, religious life or dictating our morality to others.
As I read "comments" I am beginning to think you are the only adult in the room.
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Tom, it's a good column but you could have simplified it even further.
Step 1; The GOP will become the party of power as soon as it publicly disavows the Tea Party instead of letting them drive the GOP bus. The Tea Partiers will continue to votes republican no matter what when the only alternative is the democratic choice and the GOP will have no problem finding those three million missing votes among the independents who are more scared of life under Tea Party rule than life under democratic rule.
Step 2; Realizing that step 1, while needed, won't automatically win the election, just the popular vote. Jon Stewart summed up the 2012 election best. Obama won the presidency, but Romney won the confederacy. The GOP got creamed and until they realize that their stances need softening up in order to make inroads into the blue states, there'll be more of the same. America is best governed from the middle, not an extreme from one side or the other. The GOP's current biggest problem is having allowed the democrats to claim the middle political ground while the GOP was having it's love affair with the Tea Party crazies.
The GOP is not run by "the Tea party". And the Democrats who in reality are far to the left of the middle, curiously tout Jon Stewart as an authority. Heaven help us! The Obama experiment has failed this country thus far and will continue to do so. Mour hope is that our system of government will enable us to correct our course in 2016. Funny that I notice the left already attacking those who might represent the Republicans. May our citizens see this for what it is.
user_4467933, thank you for inadvertently making my point for me as vividly as you just did.
How can a samll government tell people not to get an abortion and who they can marry? Repugs are delusional.
Tom, Tom, Tom.....the problem w/ the Rs is not how they package their message...it's the message. You can't soften the ideology by presenting it in a different way. Until the party gets rid of the far right ideology of controlling people's lives and demonizing everyone who isn't an old white male, it will not win a national election - and without the current gerrymandering would be hard pressed to maintain it's majority in the house. Can it do it?....sure, eventually. But it will take a lot more than just careful re-wording of the same old thing.
"127guy" First I don't consider myself a "progressive". Second I once worked for Republican candidates, candidates that were winning. If you're into "theological government" or "social conservatism" I'd suggest you start a new Party. If you are looking to win elections I'd suggest conforming "fiscal conservatives" values to a modern economy and nation. Otherwise you are an ideologue a particular species that seldom adds much to the debate.
As to doing something useful. I'm retired now and have something useful to do. I'm going to play golf again for the fifth time this week. Outside of that I write got a new book coming out and a number of short stories already out. But hey thanks for the insult on the name, quite cute.
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Your a funny guy for someone without a position beyond poor attempts at insulting people. Must be a student of TSW.
Tom, the key here is your mention of the party's connection to "regular folks". The huge problem with that is, of course, the way Republicans make that connection. Republicans make the connection through religious affiliation. Changing some language to be less harsh against anyone who is not a Christian, white, straight and male will help a bit, but too much of that alienates the base.
The other part, the economic part, has to do with somehow convincing people on the lower rungs of the economic ladder that Republican policies are somehow helping them. That would require lies and lying to the American people is never going to be a winning strategy.
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America would benefit by having TWO or more viable candidates for President and TWO or more competent parties. The recent Republican Party had a poor platform, overly catering to religious and economic fanatics, and didn't deserve to win. And personally, I viewed Romney as a liar and a tax cheat, and unworthy of following Abe Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt. His etch-a-sketch campaign supported this viewpoint. (This was pointed out in one of Farah Stockman's opinions this spring.) Note the race in Minnesota for Michele Bachman's House seat: the moderate businessman who was the Democratic candidate better fit a Republican platform than did Bachman, but Bachman received 10 the campaign funding, and much from out of state, and eked out a win in a rich gerrymandered district! Republicans should return to their roots -- cast off the Religious Right, ignore Karl Rove and Rush Limbaugh, return to sensible economics by reducing handouts to the rich as well as the middle class and poor, stop spending enormous amounts of tax payer money trying to control the world via military means.
The Republican party will only be Dead if its Congressmen and Senators violate the GOP's standard campaign pledge "Read My Lips, NO NEW TAXES". George H.W. Bush violated that pledge, and he lost his reelection. Obama and Reid will pull every stunt to make Republicans violate their campaign pledges. Then if Republicans actually do, they will be rewarded by even more criticism by the liberal media. Democrats are EXPECTED to violate their campaign pledges by the mainstream media. They always get a pass. Obama violated all of his, and he is about to violate "No more taxes on the Middle Class" And in MA Deval will soon violate "No more taxes on the Middle Class" also. Right now, Republicans need to place sole blame for the "Fiscal Cliff" on Barack Obama. He wants to raise taxes by $1.6 Trillion over 10 years. BUT he has no intention of cutting any spending; rather he will use the taxes to just INCREASE government spending. .
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If the Republicans are so easily swayed by "stunts" than their positions probably weren't so firmly held.
You must be in possession of a wicked good crystal ball that you can so easily see the future. ;)
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The Republican party would get a good start towards 2016 by telling Grover Norquist and Sarah Palin to both take a hike. To be Republican today we are identified as racist, homophobic and misogynistic. I'm none of the above. I don't have a problem with government spending money, my problem is when the government blows or wastes money. Romney was hurt more by the primary process than by Obama in my opinion. The pandering to these extremists (on both sides actually) does nothing to help the party or more sadly, the nation.
I daresay your current opinion makes you a Democrat.
This blogger didn't really read what Grover Nordquist has to say. Nordquest says that the GOP must stick to its "No new Taxes" pledges. Then the voters have a CHOICE. No taxes, less government spending, more private sector jobs? Vote GOP. More taxes, more spending, more regulations, less private sector jobs? Vote Dem. Read his interview with Steven Moore of the WSJ http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324352004578137112355225342.html?mod=ITP_opinion_0 By the way, it is a lengthy interview. Dems won't read it. Too much detail, actual facts and figures. Ronmey was hurt in the primary process. But not by the Republicans. It was by the mainstream media, starting with George Stephanopolous' "out of the blue" question about contraception. The fact that that "issue" was then taken up by the Obama campaign showed that the campaign actually PLANTED that question with George. And currently Marco Rubio has found out that he should NOT be giving ingterviews to GQ magazine (who then asked Rubio how old the Earth was). The purpose of the question was to make Marco look bad, no matter what his answer was.
Democrats run the "show" in Massachusetts and the "show" is probably the most corrupt state government in the country, with the possible exception of Illinios. So many Democrats benefit from this culture of corruption that they are a formidable voting block. For the gravy train to continue, Democrats must remain in power and they do.
Republicans can't win congressional seats in MA because the electorate - for whatever reason - votes the party, not the person.
For all that "corrupt" government you claim, Massachusetts continuously appears in the top ten states with the highest quality of life in all the important indices: education, health, access to healthcare, financials, crime rates ...you name it.Rich Tisei and Scott Brown were good, viable candidates but were allied with the national Republican party and its social issues which are abhorrent to the progressive thinkers in this state.
"...in MA because the electorate - for whatever reason - votes the party, not the person." Have you ever heard of William Weld or even Mitt Romney? Here's a winning strategy for the MA GOP: Nominate viable candidates, oh, but first you'll need to wrest control of the national party from the self-righteous social control freaks who want to interfere in the private lives of Americans.
Yessir Tom, it's all easily fixable for the GOP. Keep mainlining the KoolAid. Let the serial failure to learn continue apace. Classic.
I'll vote every time for the party that stays out of my bedroom and off my body!
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Keep in mind that their is another, more plausible, path to Republican victory. As with all of the historic examples you've cited, it was the party in power who resuscitated the opposition. It is likely the current Democrats will do the same favor. Americans will soon realize that demonozing the opposition as extremist, homophopic and racist is not a policy. Ultimately, they will have to rely on improving the economic condition of those they've manipulated. Good luck.
Incredible1 is 1000% correct....Massachusetts is not only one of the most corrupt state goverments in the country but, also a total embarassment with the Democrats we continuously send to Washington. What a huge mistake the so-called progressive thinkers in this state did sending Warren, Kennedy, and Tierney to Washington to represent us. Brown, Tisei, and Bielat were absolutely a better chocie for Massachusetts and America. Those thinking otherwise are my total embarassment as a resident and voter in Massachusetts.
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I don't think they're done but I'm not convinced that their members in congress have the desire to make the changes necessary for long term survival. I generally think grid lock is good for the country but there are things that need to be done soon.
Science is science. Religion is religion. Atheism is atheism. All satisfy different needs to the human psyche. A moderately wise person can decide how those needs are distributed for himself or herself. And they need not be in conflict. The fundamentalist practitioners of Biblical absolutes applied to morality decisions for themselves, sometimes demanding fealty of such morality upon others, do not follow the same "absolute" directives found throughout the Bible to medicine practiced 2000 years ago, various death penalty applications for even minor infractions by today''s standards, etc. They apply the "cafeteria style approach" that a few years ago they used as a weapon against disbelievers of their singular point of view. What's my point? Simply stated, they form one of the many "bases" of the Republican "hurdles" Republican candidates must successfully jump over to become a "viable" candidate for their party. Other stances being no tax increase for the rich, no viable alternative health care plan for ObamneyCare, yes call it what it is, ObamneyCare, no release of tax returns for a reasonable # of years, no sensible approach to immigration, ( Bush W., McCain and Hillary all had middle of the road approaches on immigration ) no compromise on issues important to all American citizens, etc. Thus it's a non-inclusive candidate, hence party, that comes to the fore. A majority of a diverse electorate observed all of this and voted accordingly. The immediacy of the attack upon and the rebuke of Romney by high echelon Republicans reveals they are very cognizant of the problems the party faces.