Gamblers love to rationalize their wagers. If anyone is willing to listen, we’ll talk relentlessly about why we are taking a game or why we are laying off. Sometimes the reasoning is tired; occasionally, it’s grounded in logic.

When gamblers say they like a team because it is “coming off a bye week,” this always seems to make sense. “Coming off a bye week” makes a team sound rested, prepared, and ready to pounce. But does this theory simply sound good, or do teams with extra preparation cover the spread more often than not?