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the bettor’s edge

Against the spread, the Jaguars are historically bad

The St. Louis Rams are 0-4 against the spread and have been outscored by 48 points in their last two games. The Rams rank at or near the NFL’s bottom in yards gained, points allowed, rushing yards per game, and rushing yards allowed per game.

On Sunday, St. Louis is an 11½-point favorite over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

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This is how far Jacksonville has fallen in the eyes of oddsmakers. In order to ensure action on both sides, the Jaguars have been afforded a sizable head start against one of the league’s worst teams. Of course, Jacksonville is also 0-4 against the spread, no surprise considering it has scored an average of 7.8 points per game and has allowed 32.2.

Next week, Denver hosts Jacksonville and Pregame.com reported the projected point spread would be Denver minus-28. If that number holds, the Broncos would be the largest favorite in NFL history.

It’s time to raise my hand and admit I took a chance on Jacksonville getting 8½ points last week in Indianapolis. That wager was a total failure on my part, so it’s time to find some success.

This week’s picks (home team in caps):

TENNESSEE (+2½) over Kansas City: The Chiefs have proven they can beat Jacksonville (a 28-2 win in Week 1) and the NFC East (wins over Dallas, Philadelphia, and the Giants). The Titans are without starting quarterback Jake Locker but he’s backed up by veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who shook off the rust last weekend following Locker’s injury. Tennessee is 3-0-1 against the spread and has a balanced defense. It’s an attractive, underrated home underdog. Risking $165 to win $150.

INDIANAPOLIS (+2½) over Seattle: The Seahawks are 4-0 against the number and in the standings. But their two road wins (against Carolina and Houston) were tossups, and the Colts have a quarterback/running back combination (Andrew Luck and Trent Richardson) that is capable of closing out tight games. Risking $165 to win $150.

Baltimore (+3) over MIAMI: The Dolphins played their third road game Monday night and looked worn down. With a bye looming next weekend, expect that frazzled appearance to reappear against Baltimore. The Ravens were hampered against Buffalo because of Joe Flacco’s five interceptions, a trend that’s unlikely to repeat itself against Miami’s below-average pass defense. Risking $165 to win $150.

Last week: 0-3-1, minus $385. Season: 6-8-1, minus $340.

Ed Ryan can be reached at ed_ryan@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @EdzoRyan.
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