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AFC preview: Broncos again a top threat

It should be business as usual for Peyton Manning and the Broncos. They’ll produce a ton of points, win the division, and square off against the Patriots for the AFC title.Justin Edmonds/Getty Images

A look at how the AFC shapes up in 2014. Teams listed in predicted order of finish:

AFC EAST

1. New England

Coach: Bill Belichick (15th year, 163-61)

Last year: 12-4, first

Outlook: It's the same for the Patriots every year: Super Bowl or bust. Their defense is much-improved with the additions of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, while the offense should be better in Tom Brady's second year with his receivers. If this team stays healthy, it's going to the Super Bowl.

Will make playoffs if . . . : They show up every Sunday. The Patriots have made the playoffs 11 times in 14 seasons under Belichick.

STARTING OFFENSE STARTING DEFENSE
QB Tom Brady DE Rob Ninkovich
RB Stevan Ridley DT Vince Wilfork
FB James Develin DT Chris Jones
WR Julian Edelman DE Chandler Jones
WR Danny Amendola LB Jamie Collins
TE Rob Gronkowski LB Jerod Mayo
LT Nate Solder LB Dont’a Hightower
LG Josh Kline CB Darrelle Revis
C Ryan Wendell CB Brandon Browner*
RG Dan Connolly SS Duron Harmon
RT Sebastian Vollmer FS Devin McCourty
K Stephen Gostkowski P Ryan Allen

2. NY Jets

Coach: Rex Ryan (6th year, 42-38)

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Last year: 8-8, second

Outlook: They still have issues at wide receiver, the secondary is a mess, and Geno Smith is a major question mark, but the Jets still look dangerous. The front seven might be the best in football, the offensive line is a solid veteran unit, and Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson make a 1-2 combo in the backfield.

Will make playoffs if . . . : They get even halfway decent QB play. They can play defense and run the ball, and just need a QB who can hand the ball off and not turn it over.

STARTING OFFENSE STARTING DEFENSE
QB Geno Smith DE Muhammad Wilkerson
RB Chris Johnson NT Damon Harrison
WR Eric Decker DT Sheldon Richardson
WR Jeremy Kerley OLB Quinton Coples
WR David Nelson ILB Demario Davis
TE Jeff Cumberland ILB David Harris
LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson OLB Calvin Pace
LG Brian Winters CB Dee Milliner
C Nick Mangold CB Ellis Lankster
RG Willie Colon SS Antonio Allen
RT Breno Giacomini FS Dawan Landry
K Nick Folk P Ryan Quigley

3. Miami

Coach: Joe Philbin (3d year, 15-17)

Last year: 8-8, third

Outlook: It's the same old story for the Dolphins. They have a great pass rush and intriguing playmakers on both sides of the ball, but the offensive line is a mess, the linebackers can't cover anyone, and the quarterback is a major question mark. This is a big year for Ryan Tannehill as he enters his third season as the starter.

Will make playoffs if . . . : They can remake the offensive line on the fly. Tannehill showed promise last year, but his line got him pummeled.

STARTING OFFENSE STARTING DEFENSE
QB
Ryan Tannehill DE Cameron Wake
RB Lamar Miller DT Randy Starks
WR Mike Wallace DT Jared Odrick
WR Brian Hartline DE Olivier Vernon
WR Brandon Gibson OLB Philip Wheeler
TE Charles Clay MLB Koa Misi
LT Branden Albert OLB Dannell Ellerbe
LG Daryn Colledge CB Brent Grimes
C Mike Pouncey* CB Cortland Finnegan
RG Shelley Smith SS Jimmy Wilson
RT Ja’Wuan James FS Louis Delmas
K Caleb Sturgis P Brandon Fields

4. Buffalo

Coach: Doug Marrone (2d year, 6-10)

Last year: 6-10, fourth

Outlook: The Bills haven't made the playoffs in 14 years, and there's little reason to think that streak won't reach 15. Sammy Watkins could be a bona fide star and the front four is possibly the best in the NFL, but they are weak in the back seven and EJ Manuel might be the worst starting QB in the league.

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Will make playoffs if . . . : Hell freezes over. In a quarterback league, the Bills have the worst depth chart in the NFL. Watkins needs someone to throw him the football.

STARTING OFFENSE STARTING DEFENSE
QB EJ Manuel DE Mario Williams
RB C.J. Spiller DT Kyle Williams
WR Sammy Watkins DT Marcell Dareus
WR Mike Williams DE Jerry Hughes
WR Robert Woods OLB Keith Rivers
TE Scott Chandler MLB Brandon Spikes
LT Cordy Glenn OLB Nigel Bradham*
LG Chris Williams CB Leodis McKelvin
C Eric Wood CB Stephon Gilmore
RG Erik Pears SS Aaron Williams
RT Seantrel Henderson FS Da’Norris Searcy
K Dan Carpenter P Colton Schmidt

AFC NORTH

1. Baltimore

Coach: John Harbaugh (seventh year, 62-34)

Last year: 8-8, third

Outlook: The Ravens had the typical Super Bowl hangover last year to snap their five-year playoff streak, but look like a good bet to get back to the postseason. They hired a fantastic offensive coordinator in Gary Kubiak, got nastier at wide receiver with the signing of Steve Smith, and the defense should be even better with several new faces.

Will make playoffs if . . . : Joe Flacco can cut back on the interceptions. He had 22 last year, almost double his previous career high (12).

STARTING OFFENSE STARTING DEFENSE
QB Joe Flacco DE Haloti Ngata
RB Ray Rice* NT Brandon Williams
FB Kyle Juszczyk DE Chris Canty
WR Steve Smith OLB Terrell Suggs
WR Torrey Smith ILB C.J. Mosley
TE Dennis Pitta ILB Daryl Smith
LT Eugene Monroe OLB Courtney Upshaw
LG Kelechi Osemele CB Lardarius Webb
C Jeremy Zuttah CB Jimmy Smith
RG Marshal Yanda SS Matt Elam
RT Rick Wagner S Darian Stewart
K Justin Tucker P Sam Koch

2. Pittsburgh

Coach: Mike Tomlin (8th year, 71-41)

Last year: 8-8, second

Outlook: They have major questions on the offensive line, uninspiring receivers, and issues in the secondary (Troy Polamalu is a shell of his former self). But with Ben Roethlisberger, a strong running game, and a stout front seven, the Steelers will always be competitive.

Will make playoffs if . . . : The front seven gets after the quarterback. The secondary is old and slow, but if the Steelers can get consistent quarterback pressure, it will make the back unit look a lot better.

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STARTING OFFENSE STARTING DEFENSE
QB Ben Roethlisberger DE Cameron Heyward
RB Le’Veon Bell NT Steve McLendon
FB Will Johnson DE Cam Thomas
WR Antonio Brown OLB Jason Worilds
WR Markus Wheaton ILB Ryan Shazier
TE Heath Miller ILB Lawrence Timmons
LT Kelvin Beachum OLB Jarvis Jones
LG Ramon Foster CB Ike Taylor
C Maurkice Pouncey CB Cortez Allen
RG David DeCastro SS Troy Polamalu
RT Marcus Gilbert S Mike Mitchell
K Shaun Suisham P Brad Wing

3. Cincinnati

Coach: Marvin Lewis (12th year, 90-85-1)

Last year: 11-5 (first)

Outlook: The Bengals have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, with a solid offensive line and balanced defense with talent at all three levels. But they're deficient at quarterback and will probably come to regret giving Andy Dalton that contract extension. They also lost both coordinators.

Will make playoffs if . . . : Dalton cuts down on the interceptions. He has 49 in three seasons, including 20 last year, plus two more in the home playoff loss to the Chargers.

STARTING OFFENSE STARTING DEFENSE
QB Andy Dalton DE Carlos Dunlap
RB Giovani Bernard DT Domata Peko
WR A.J. Green DT Geno Atkins
WR Mohamed Sanu DE Wallace Gilberry
TE Jermaine Gresham OLB Vontaze Burfict
TE Tyler Eifert MLB Rey Maualuga
LT Andrew Whitworth OLB Emmanuel Lamur
LG Clint Boling CB Leon Hall
C Russell Bodine CB Terence Newman
RG Kevin Zeitler SS George Iloka
RT Andre Smith FS Reggie Nelson
K Mike Nugent P Kevin Huber

4. Cleveland

Coach: Mike Pettine (1st year)

Last year: 4-12, fourth

Outlook: The Browns have made the playoffs exactly once since reentering the league in 1999, and this will be another long, painful season for Cleveland fans. Brian Hoyer had a terrible preseason, Johnny Manziel is clearly not ready for the NFL, and Josh Gordon is gone for the season. Hey, at least LeBron is back.

Will make playoffs if . . . : They join the Big Ten. This offense is going to be boring and dreadful. Manziel's development is the only thing going for the Browns this year.

STARTING OFFENSE STARTING DEFENSE
QB Brian Hoyer DE Phil Taylor
RB Ben Tate NT Ahtyba Rubin
FB Ray Agnew DE Desmond Bryant*
WR Andrew Hawkins OLB Paul Kruger
WR Miles Austin ILB Karlos Dansby
TE Jordan Cameron ILB Craig Robertson
LT Joe Thomas OLB Barkevious Mingo
LG Joel Bitonio CB Joe Haden
C Alex Mack CB Buster Skrine
RG John Greco SS Donte Whitner
RT Mitchell Schwartz FS Tashaun Gipson
K Billy Cundiff P Spencer Lanning

AFC SOUTH

1. Indianapolis

Coach: Chuck Pagano (3d year, 22-10)

Last year: 11-5, first

Outlook: The Colts should cake-walk to another division title. in a weak AFC South. Andrew Luck is ready to break out as a mega-star, especially with Reggie Wayne back from an ACL injury. But they still have big issues at offensive line and running back, have a shaky secondary, and are way behind New England and Denver in the AFC.

Will make playoffs if . . . : Luck stays healthy. The Colts might run the table in the AFC South if Luck plays all 16 games.

STARTING OFFENSE STARTING DEFENSE
QB Andrew Luck DE Cory Redding
RB Trent Richardson NT Josh Chapman
WR Reggie Wayne DE Arthur Jones
WR T.Y. Hilton OLB Erik Walden
WR Hakeem Nicks ILB D’Qwell Jackson
TE Coby Fleener ILB Jerrell Freeman
LT Anthony Castonzo OLB Robert Mathis*
LG Jack Mewhort CB Greg Toler
C Khaled Holmes CB Vontae Davis
RG Hugh Thornton SS Mike Adams
RT Gosder Cherilus FS LaRon Landry
K Adam Vinatieri P Pat McAfee

2. Tennessee

Coach: Ken Whisenhunt (1st year)

Last year: 7-9, second

Outlook: The Titans haven't reached the playoffs since 2008, and will have a tough time getting back there this year, especially if Jake Locker can't stay healthy and figure things out. If Whisenhunt can do with Locker what he did with Philip Rivers and Kurt Warner, the Titans could be dangerous.

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Will make playoffs if . . . : The Titans play smart football. They have a strong running game and an underrated defense, but need the offense to not hurt themselves.

STARTING OFFENSE STARTING DEFENSE
QB Jake Locker DE Ropati Pitoitua
RB Shonn Greene NT Sammie Hill
WR Nate Washington DE Jurrell Casey
WR Justin Hunter OLB Derrick Morgan
WR Kendall Wright ILB Wesley Woodyard
TE Delanie Walker ILB Zach Brown
LT Michael Roos OLB Kamerion Wimbley
LG Andy Levitre CB Coty Sensabaugh
C Brian Schwenke CB Jason McCourty
RG Chance Warmack SS Bernard Pollard
RT Michael Oher FS Michael Griffin
K Ryan Succop P Brett Kern

3. Houston

Coach: Bill O'Brien (first year)

Last year: 2-14, fourth

Outlook: The quarterback position will single-handedly hold this team back this year — sorry, Texans fans, Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't the answer — and their decision not to draft one until the fourth round (Tom Savage) is curious at best. But a defense with J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney, Kareem Jackson, and Johnathan Joseph will keep them competitive.

Will make playoffs if . . . : The defense can average one or two TDs per game. Because the offense certainly won't be scoring them.

STARTING OFFENSE STARTING DEFENSE
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick DE J.J. Watt
RB Arian Foster NT Jerrell Powe
FB Jay Prosch DE Jared Crick
WR DeAndre Hopkins OLB Brooks Reed
WR Andre Johnson ILB Brian Cushing
TE Garrett Graham ILB Mike Mohamed
LT Duane Brown OLB Jadeveon Clowney
LG Ben Jones CB Kareem Jackson
C Chris Myers CB Johnathan Joseph
RG Brandon Brooks SS D.J. Swearinger
RT Derek Newton FS Kendrick Lewis
K Randy Bullock P Shane Lechler

4. Jacksonville

Coach: Gus Bradley (2d year, 4-12)

Last year: 4-12, third

Outlook: The Jaguars created a little buzz this offseason with the free agent additions of Chris Clemons and Red Bryant and with how good rookie QB Blake Bortles looked in the preseason. But this looks like a team that's still 1-2 years away, particularly if Chad Henne gets the bulk of starts at quarterback.

Will make playoffs if . . . : The playoff field gets expanded to 16 teams per conference. Seriously, the Jags have no shot at the playoffs with Henne or a rookie at quarterback.

STARTING OFFENSE STARTING DEFENSE
QB Chad Henne DE Red Bryant
RB Toby Gerhart DT Roy Miller
FB Will Ta’ufo’ou DT Sen’Derrick Marks
WR Cecil Shorts DE Chris Clemons
WR Marqise Lee OLB Geno Hayes
TE Marcedes Lewis MLB Paul Posluszny
LT Luke Joeckel OLB LaRoy Reynolds
LG Zane Beadles CB Dwayne Gratz
C Jacques McClendon CB Alan Ball
RG Brandon Linder SS Johnathan Cyprien
RT Austin Pasztor FS Winston Guy
K Josh Scobee P Bryan Anger

AFC WEST

1. Denver

Coach: John Fox (fourth year, 34-14)

Last year: 13-3, first

Outlook: It should be business as usual for Peyton Manning and the Broncos. They'll produce a ton of points, win the division, and square off against the Patriots for the AFC title. The defense is better this year with DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib, and T.J. Ward, but the offense might take a slight step back.

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Will make playoffs if . . . : Earth isn't wiped out by a giant asteroid. Manning has made the playoffs in 13 of his 15 healthy seasons, and hasn't missed them since 2001.

STARTING OFFENSE STARTING DEFENSE
QB Peyton Manning DE Derek Wolfe
RB Montee Ball DT Sylvester Williams
WR Demaryius Thomas DT Terrance Knighton
WR Wes Welker* DE DeMarcus Ware
WR Emmanuel Sanders OLB Von Miller
TE Julius Thomas MLB Nate Irving
LT Ryan Clady OLB Danny Trevathan
LG Orlando Franklin CB Aqib Talib
C Manny Ramirez CB Chris Harris
RG Louis Vasquez SS T.J. Ward
RT Chris Clark FS Rahim Moore
K Matt Prater* P Britton Colquitt

2. San Diego

Coach: Mike McCoy (2d year, 9-7)

Last year: 9-7, third

Outlook: The Chargers have a solid offensive line, an emerging star in WR Keenan Allen, and an underrated defense that hung tough with Denver three times last year. Philip Rivers also is coming off a career year. If he can keep it going after losing OC Ken Whisenhunt, the Chargers will be dangerous in January.

Will make playoffs if . . . : They get even halfway decent QB play. They can play defense and run the ball, and just need Rivers to avoid costly turnovers.

STARTING OFFENSE STARTING DEFENSE
QB Philip Rivers DE Corey Liuget
RB Ryan Mathews NT Sean Lissemore
WR Keenan Allen DE Kendall Reyes
WR Malcom Floyd OLB Jarrett Johnson
WR Eddie Royal ILB Manti Te’o
TE Antonio Gates ILB Donald Butler
LT King Dunlap OLB Melvin Ingram
LG Chad Rinehart CB Shareece Wright
C Nick Hardwick CB Brandon Flowers
RG Johnnie Troutman SS Marcus Gilchrist
RT D.J. Fluker FS Eric Weddle
K Nick Novak P Mike Scifres

3. Kansas City

Coach: Andy Reid (2d year, 11-5)

Last year: 11-5, second

Outlook: Andy Reid knows what he's doing, leading his team to the playoffs in 10 of 15 seasons. The Chiefs have a steady QB in Alex Smith, a great running game, and a defense that can get after the passer. Still, they were exposed in that playoff collapse to the Colts, and we think the Chiefs take a step back this year.

Will make playoffs if . . . : Smith keeps the turnovers to a minimum. He had only seven interceptions last year as the Chiefs were No. 2 in the NFL in turnover margin (plus-19).

STARTING OFFENSE STARTING DEFENSE
QB Alex Smith DE Allen Bailey
RB Jamaal Charles DT Dontari Poe
WR Dwayne Bowe* DE Mike DeVito
WR Donnie Avery OLB Justin Houston
TE Anthony Fasano ILB Josh Mauga
TE Travis Kelce ILB Derrick Johnson
LT Eric Fisher OLB Tamba Hali
LG Jeff Allen CB Marcus Cooper
C Rodney Hudson CB Sean Smith
RG Zach Fulton SS Eric Berry
RT Donald Stephenson* FS Husain Abdullah
K Cairo Santos P Dustin Colquitt

4. Oakland

Coach: Dennis Allen (third year, 8-24)

Last year: 4-12, fourth

Outlook: Hard to believe the Raiders haven't made the playoffs since reaching the Super Bowl in 2002. Trading for Matt Schaub and his $10 million salary is a real head-scratcher, and they just got older and slower by signing Maurice Jones-Drew, LaMarr Woodley, Carlos Rogers, and Justin Tuck.

Will make playoffs if . . . : Rich Gannon comes out of the broadcast booth to take over at QB. It's between the Raiders, Texans, and Bills for worst QB depth chart in the AFC.

STARTING OFFENSE STARTING DEFENSE
QB Derek Carr DE LaMarr Woodley
RB Maurice Jones-Drew DT Antonio Smith
FB Marcel Reece DT Pat Sims
WR Andre Holmes DE Justin Tuck
WR Rod Streater OLB Sio Moore
TE David Ausberry MLB Nick Roach
LT Donald Penn OLB Khalil Mack
LG Khalif Barnes CB Tarrell Brown
C Stefen Wisniewski CB Carlos Rogers
RG Austin Howard SS Tyvon Branch
RT Menelik Watson FS Charles Woodson
K Sebastian Janikowski P Marquette King

Ben Volin can be reached at ben.volin@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @BenVolin