A look at how the AFC shapes up in 2014. Teams listed in predicted order of finish:
AFC EAST
Coach: Bill Belichick (15th year, 163-61)
Last year: 12-4, first
Outlook: It's the same for the Patriots every year: Super Bowl or bust. Their defense is much-improved with the additions of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, while the offense should be better in Tom Brady's second year with his receivers. If this team stays healthy, it's going to the Super Bowl.
Will make playoffs if . . . : They show up every Sunday. The Patriots have made the playoffs 11 times in 14 seasons under Belichick.
STARTING OFFENSE | STARTING DEFENSE | ||
QB | Tom Brady | DE | Rob Ninkovich |
RB | Stevan Ridley | DT | Vince Wilfork |
FB | James Develin | DT | Chris Jones |
WR | Julian Edelman | DE | Chandler Jones |
WR | Danny Amendola | LB | Jamie Collins |
TE | Rob Gronkowski | LB | Jerod Mayo |
LT | Nate Solder | LB | Dont’a Hightower |
LG | Josh Kline | CB | Darrelle Revis |
C | Ryan Wendell | CB | Brandon Browner* |
RG | Dan Connolly | SS | Duron Harmon |
RT | Sebastian Vollmer | FS | Devin McCourty |
K | Stephen Gostkowski | P | Ryan Allen |
2. NY Jets
Coach: Rex Ryan (6th year, 42-38)
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Last year: 8-8, second
Outlook: They still have issues at wide receiver, the secondary is a mess, and Geno Smith is a major question mark, but the Jets still look dangerous. The front seven might be the best in football, the offensive line is a solid veteran unit, and Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson make a 1-2 combo in the backfield.
Will make playoffs if . . . : They get even halfway decent QB play. They can play defense and run the ball, and just need a QB who can hand the ball off and not turn it over.
STARTING OFFENSE | STARTING DEFENSE | ||
QB | Geno Smith | DE | Muhammad Wilkerson |
RB | Chris Johnson | NT | Damon Harrison |
WR | Eric Decker | DT | Sheldon Richardson |
WR | Jeremy Kerley | OLB | Quinton Coples |
WR | David Nelson | ILB | Demario Davis |
TE | Jeff Cumberland | ILB | David Harris |
LT | D’Brickashaw Ferguson | OLB | Calvin Pace |
LG | Brian Winters | CB | Dee Milliner |
C | Nick Mangold | CB | Ellis Lankster |
RG | Willie Colon | SS | Antonio Allen |
RT | Breno Giacomini | FS | Dawan Landry |
K | Nick Folk | P | Ryan Quigley |
3. Miami
Coach: Joe Philbin (3d year, 15-17)
Last year: 8-8, third
Outlook: It's the same old story for the Dolphins. They have a great pass rush and intriguing playmakers on both sides of the ball, but the offensive line is a mess, the linebackers can't cover anyone, and the quarterback is a major question mark. This is a big year for Ryan Tannehill as he enters his third season as the starter.
Will make playoffs if . . . : They can remake the offensive line on the fly. Tannehill showed promise last year, but his line got him pummeled.
STARTING OFFENSE | STARTING DEFENSE | ||
QB |
Ryan Tannehill | DE | Cameron Wake |
RB | Lamar Miller | DT | Randy Starks |
WR | Mike Wallace | DT | Jared Odrick |
WR | Brian Hartline | DE | Olivier Vernon |
WR | Brandon Gibson | OLB | Philip Wheeler |
TE | Charles Clay | MLB | Koa Misi |
LT | Branden Albert | OLB | Dannell Ellerbe |
LG | Daryn Colledge | CB | Brent Grimes |
C | Mike Pouncey* | CB | Cortland Finnegan |
RG | Shelley Smith | SS | Jimmy Wilson |
RT | Ja’Wuan James | FS | Louis Delmas |
K | Caleb Sturgis | P | Brandon Fields |
4. Buffalo
Coach: Doug Marrone (2d year, 6-10)
Last year: 6-10, fourth
Outlook: The Bills haven't made the playoffs in 14 years, and there's little reason to think that streak won't reach 15. Sammy Watkins could be a bona fide star and the front four is possibly the best in the NFL, but they are weak in the back seven and EJ Manuel might be the worst starting QB in the league.
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Will make playoffs if . . . : Hell freezes over. In a quarterback league, the Bills have the worst depth chart in the NFL. Watkins needs someone to throw him the football.
STARTING OFFENSE | STARTING DEFENSE | ||
QB | EJ Manuel | DE | Mario Williams |
RB | C.J. Spiller | DT | Kyle Williams |
WR | Sammy Watkins | DT | Marcell Dareus |
WR | Mike Williams | DE | Jerry Hughes |
WR | Robert Woods | OLB | Keith Rivers |
TE | Scott Chandler | MLB | Brandon Spikes |
LT | Cordy Glenn | OLB | Nigel Bradham* |
LG | Chris Williams | CB | Leodis McKelvin |
C | Eric Wood | CB | Stephon Gilmore |
RG | Erik Pears | SS | Aaron Williams |
RT | Seantrel Henderson | FS | Da’Norris Searcy |
K | Dan Carpenter | P | Colton Schmidt |
AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore
Coach: John Harbaugh (seventh year, 62-34)
Last year: 8-8, third
Outlook: The Ravens had the typical Super Bowl hangover last year to snap their five-year playoff streak, but look like a good bet to get back to the postseason. They hired a fantastic offensive coordinator in Gary Kubiak, got nastier at wide receiver with the signing of Steve Smith, and the defense should be even better with several new faces.
Will make playoffs if . . . : Joe Flacco can cut back on the interceptions. He had 22 last year, almost double his previous career high (12).
STARTING OFFENSE | STARTING DEFENSE | ||
QB | Joe Flacco | DE | Haloti Ngata |
RB | Ray Rice* | NT | Brandon Williams |
FB | Kyle Juszczyk | DE | Chris Canty |
WR | Steve Smith | OLB | Terrell Suggs |
WR | Torrey Smith | ILB | C.J. Mosley |
TE | Dennis Pitta | ILB | Daryl Smith |
LT | Eugene Monroe | OLB | Courtney Upshaw |
LG | Kelechi Osemele | CB | Lardarius Webb |
C | Jeremy Zuttah | CB | Jimmy Smith |
RG | Marshal Yanda | SS | Matt Elam |
RT | Rick Wagner | S | Darian Stewart |
K | Justin Tucker | P | Sam Koch |
2. Pittsburgh
Coach: Mike Tomlin (8th year, 71-41)
Last year: 8-8, second
Outlook: They have major questions on the offensive line, uninspiring receivers, and issues in the secondary (Troy Polamalu is a shell of his former self). But with Ben Roethlisberger, a strong running game, and a stout front seven, the Steelers will always be competitive.
Will make playoffs if . . . : The front seven gets after the quarterback. The secondary is old and slow, but if the Steelers can get consistent quarterback pressure, it will make the back unit look a lot better.
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STARTING OFFENSE | STARTING DEFENSE | ||
QB | Ben Roethlisberger | DE | Cameron Heyward |
RB | Le’Veon Bell | NT | Steve McLendon |
FB | Will Johnson | DE | Cam Thomas |
WR | Antonio Brown | OLB | Jason Worilds |
WR | Markus Wheaton | ILB | Ryan Shazier |
TE | Heath Miller | ILB | Lawrence Timmons |
LT | Kelvin Beachum | OLB | Jarvis Jones |
LG | Ramon Foster | CB | Ike Taylor |
C | Maurkice Pouncey | CB | Cortez Allen |
RG | David DeCastro | SS | Troy Polamalu |
RT | Marcus Gilbert | S | Mike Mitchell |
K | Shaun Suisham | P | Brad Wing |
3. Cincinnati
Coach: Marvin Lewis (12th year, 90-85-1)
Last year: 11-5 (first)
Outlook: The Bengals have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, with a solid offensive line and balanced defense with talent at all three levels. But they're deficient at quarterback and will probably come to regret giving Andy Dalton that contract extension. They also lost both coordinators.
Will make playoffs if . . . : Dalton cuts down on the interceptions. He has 49 in three seasons, including 20 last year, plus two more in the home playoff loss to the Chargers.
STARTING OFFENSE | STARTING DEFENSE | ||
QB | Andy Dalton | DE | Carlos Dunlap |
RB | Giovani Bernard | DT | Domata Peko |
WR | A.J. Green | DT | Geno Atkins |
WR | Mohamed Sanu | DE | Wallace Gilberry |
TE | Jermaine Gresham | OLB | Vontaze Burfict |
TE | Tyler Eifert | MLB | Rey Maualuga |
LT | Andrew Whitworth | OLB | Emmanuel Lamur |
LG | Clint Boling | CB | Leon Hall |
C | Russell Bodine | CB | Terence Newman |
RG | Kevin Zeitler | SS | George Iloka |
RT | Andre Smith | FS | Reggie Nelson |
K | Mike Nugent | P | Kevin Huber |
4. Cleveland
Coach: Mike Pettine (1st year)
Last year: 4-12, fourth
Outlook: The Browns have made the playoffs exactly once since reentering the league in 1999, and this will be another long, painful season for Cleveland fans. Brian Hoyer had a terrible preseason, Johnny Manziel is clearly not ready for the NFL, and Josh Gordon is gone for the season. Hey, at least LeBron is back.
Will make playoffs if . . . : They join the Big Ten. This offense is going to be boring and dreadful. Manziel's development is the only thing going for the Browns this year.
STARTING OFFENSE | STARTING DEFENSE | ||
QB | Brian Hoyer | DE | Phil Taylor |
RB | Ben Tate | NT | Ahtyba Rubin |
FB | Ray Agnew | DE | Desmond Bryant* |
WR | Andrew Hawkins | OLB | Paul Kruger |
WR | Miles Austin | ILB | Karlos Dansby |
TE | Jordan Cameron | ILB | Craig Robertson |
LT | Joe Thomas | OLB | Barkevious Mingo |
LG | Joel Bitonio | CB | Joe Haden |
C | Alex Mack | CB | Buster Skrine |
RG | John Greco | SS | Donte Whitner |
RT | Mitchell Schwartz | FS | Tashaun Gipson |
K | Billy Cundiff | P | Spencer Lanning |
AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis
Coach: Chuck Pagano (3d year, 22-10)
Last year: 11-5, first
Outlook: The Colts should cake-walk to another division title. in a weak AFC South. Andrew Luck is ready to break out as a mega-star, especially with Reggie Wayne back from an ACL injury. But they still have big issues at offensive line and running back, have a shaky secondary, and are way behind New England and Denver in the AFC.
Will make playoffs if . . . : Luck stays healthy. The Colts might run the table in the AFC South if Luck plays all 16 games.
STARTING OFFENSE | STARTING DEFENSE | ||
QB | Andrew Luck | DE | Cory Redding |
RB | Trent Richardson | NT | Josh Chapman |
WR | Reggie Wayne | DE | Arthur Jones |
WR | T.Y. Hilton | OLB | Erik Walden |
WR | Hakeem Nicks | ILB | D’Qwell Jackson |
TE | Coby Fleener | ILB | Jerrell Freeman |
LT | Anthony Castonzo | OLB | Robert Mathis* |
LG | Jack Mewhort | CB | Greg Toler |
C | Khaled Holmes | CB | Vontae Davis |
RG | Hugh Thornton | SS | Mike Adams |
RT | Gosder Cherilus | FS | LaRon Landry |
K | Adam Vinatieri | P | Pat McAfee |
2. Tennessee
Coach: Ken Whisenhunt (1st year)
Last year: 7-9, second
Outlook: The Titans haven't reached the playoffs since 2008, and will have a tough time getting back there this year, especially if Jake Locker can't stay healthy and figure things out. If Whisenhunt can do with Locker what he did with Philip Rivers and Kurt Warner, the Titans could be dangerous.
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Will make playoffs if . . . : The Titans play smart football. They have a strong running game and an underrated defense, but need the offense to not hurt themselves.
STARTING OFFENSE | STARTING DEFENSE | ||
QB | Jake Locker | DE | Ropati Pitoitua |
RB | Shonn Greene | NT | Sammie Hill |
WR | Nate Washington | DE | Jurrell Casey |
WR | Justin Hunter | OLB | Derrick Morgan |
WR | Kendall Wright | ILB | Wesley Woodyard |
TE | Delanie Walker | ILB | Zach Brown |
LT | Michael Roos | OLB | Kamerion Wimbley |
LG | Andy Levitre | CB | Coty Sensabaugh |
C | Brian Schwenke | CB | Jason McCourty |
RG | Chance Warmack | SS | Bernard Pollard |
RT | Michael Oher | FS | Michael Griffin |
K | Ryan Succop | P | Brett Kern |
3. Houston
Coach: Bill O'Brien (first year)
Last year: 2-14, fourth
Outlook: The quarterback position will single-handedly hold this team back this year — sorry, Texans fans, Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't the answer — and their decision not to draft one until the fourth round (Tom Savage) is curious at best. But a defense with J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney, Kareem Jackson, and Johnathan Joseph will keep them competitive.
Will make playoffs if . . . : The defense can average one or two TDs per game. Because the offense certainly won't be scoring them.
STARTING OFFENSE | STARTING DEFENSE | ||
QB | Ryan Fitzpatrick | DE | J.J. Watt |
RB | Arian Foster | NT | Jerrell Powe |
FB | Jay Prosch | DE | Jared Crick |
WR | DeAndre Hopkins | OLB | Brooks Reed |
WR | Andre Johnson | ILB | Brian Cushing |
TE | Garrett Graham | ILB | Mike Mohamed |
LT | Duane Brown | OLB | Jadeveon Clowney |
LG | Ben Jones | CB | Kareem Jackson |
C | Chris Myers | CB | Johnathan Joseph |
RG | Brandon Brooks | SS | D.J. Swearinger |
RT | Derek Newton | FS | Kendrick Lewis |
K | Randy Bullock | P | Shane Lechler |
4. Jacksonville
Coach: Gus Bradley (2d year, 4-12)
Last year: 4-12, third
Outlook: The Jaguars created a little buzz this offseason with the free agent additions of Chris Clemons and Red Bryant and with how good rookie QB Blake Bortles looked in the preseason. But this looks like a team that's still 1-2 years away, particularly if Chad Henne gets the bulk of starts at quarterback.
Will make playoffs if . . . : The playoff field gets expanded to 16 teams per conference. Seriously, the Jags have no shot at the playoffs with Henne or a rookie at quarterback.
STARTING OFFENSE | STARTING DEFENSE | ||
QB | Chad Henne | DE | Red Bryant |
RB | Toby Gerhart | DT | Roy Miller |
FB | Will Ta’ufo’ou | DT | Sen’Derrick Marks |
WR | Cecil Shorts | DE | Chris Clemons |
WR | Marqise Lee | OLB | Geno Hayes |
TE | Marcedes Lewis | MLB | Paul Posluszny |
LT | Luke Joeckel | OLB | LaRoy Reynolds |
LG | Zane Beadles | CB | Dwayne Gratz |
C | Jacques McClendon | CB | Alan Ball |
RG | Brandon Linder | SS | Johnathan Cyprien |
RT | Austin Pasztor | FS | Winston Guy |
K | Josh Scobee | P | Bryan Anger |
AFC WEST
1. Denver
Coach: John Fox (fourth year, 34-14)
Last year: 13-3, first
Outlook: It should be business as usual for Peyton Manning and the Broncos. They'll produce a ton of points, win the division, and square off against the Patriots for the AFC title. The defense is better this year with DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib, and T.J. Ward, but the offense might take a slight step back.
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Will make playoffs if . . . : Earth isn't wiped out by a giant asteroid. Manning has made the playoffs in 13 of his 15 healthy seasons, and hasn't missed them since 2001.
STARTING OFFENSE | STARTING DEFENSE | ||
QB | Peyton Manning | DE | Derek Wolfe |
RB | Montee Ball | DT | Sylvester Williams |
WR | Demaryius Thomas | DT | Terrance Knighton |
WR | Wes Welker* | DE | DeMarcus Ware |
WR | Emmanuel Sanders | OLB | Von Miller |
TE | Julius Thomas | MLB | Nate Irving |
LT | Ryan Clady | OLB | Danny Trevathan |
LG | Orlando Franklin | CB | Aqib Talib |
C | Manny Ramirez | CB | Chris Harris |
RG | Louis Vasquez | SS | T.J. Ward |
RT | Chris Clark | FS | Rahim Moore |
K | Matt Prater* | P | Britton Colquitt |
2. San Diego
Coach: Mike McCoy (2d year, 9-7)
Last year: 9-7, third
Outlook: The Chargers have a solid offensive line, an emerging star in WR Keenan Allen, and an underrated defense that hung tough with Denver three times last year. Philip Rivers also is coming off a career year. If he can keep it going after losing OC Ken Whisenhunt, the Chargers will be dangerous in January.
Will make playoffs if . . . : They get even halfway decent QB play. They can play defense and run the ball, and just need Rivers to avoid costly turnovers.
STARTING OFFENSE | STARTING DEFENSE | ||
QB | Philip Rivers | DE | Corey Liuget |
RB | Ryan Mathews | NT | Sean Lissemore |
WR | Keenan Allen | DE | Kendall Reyes |
WR | Malcom Floyd | OLB | Jarrett Johnson |
WR | Eddie Royal | ILB | Manti Te’o |
TE | Antonio Gates | ILB | Donald Butler |
LT | King Dunlap | OLB | Melvin Ingram |
LG | Chad Rinehart | CB | Shareece Wright |
C | Nick Hardwick | CB | Brandon Flowers |
RG | Johnnie Troutman | SS | Marcus Gilchrist |
RT | D.J. Fluker | FS | Eric Weddle |
K | Nick Novak | P | Mike Scifres |
3. Kansas City
Coach: Andy Reid (2d year, 11-5)
Last year: 11-5, second
Outlook: Andy Reid knows what he's doing, leading his team to the playoffs in 10 of 15 seasons. The Chiefs have a steady QB in Alex Smith, a great running game, and a defense that can get after the passer. Still, they were exposed in that playoff collapse to the Colts, and we think the Chiefs take a step back this year.
Will make playoffs if . . . : Smith keeps the turnovers to a minimum. He had only seven interceptions last year as the Chiefs were No. 2 in the NFL in turnover margin (plus-19).
STARTING OFFENSE | STARTING DEFENSE | ||
QB | Alex Smith | DE | Allen Bailey |
RB | Jamaal Charles | DT | Dontari Poe |
WR | Dwayne Bowe* | DE | Mike DeVito |
WR | Donnie Avery | OLB | Justin Houston |
TE | Anthony Fasano | ILB | Josh Mauga |
TE | Travis Kelce | ILB | Derrick Johnson |
LT | Eric Fisher | OLB | Tamba Hali |
LG | Jeff Allen | CB | Marcus Cooper |
C | Rodney Hudson | CB | Sean Smith |
RG | Zach Fulton | SS | Eric Berry |
RT | Donald Stephenson* | FS | Husain Abdullah |
K | Cairo Santos | P | Dustin Colquitt |
4. Oakland
Coach: Dennis Allen (third year, 8-24)
Last year: 4-12, fourth
Outlook: Hard to believe the Raiders haven't made the playoffs since reaching the Super Bowl in 2002. Trading for Matt Schaub and his $10 million salary is a real head-scratcher, and they just got older and slower by signing Maurice Jones-Drew, LaMarr Woodley, Carlos Rogers, and Justin Tuck.
Will make playoffs if . . . : Rich Gannon comes out of the broadcast booth to take over at QB. It's between the Raiders, Texans, and Bills for worst QB depth chart in the AFC.
STARTING OFFENSE | STARTING DEFENSE | ||
QB | Derek Carr | DE | LaMarr Woodley |
RB | Maurice Jones-Drew | DT | Antonio Smith |
FB | Marcel Reece | DT | Pat Sims |
WR | Andre Holmes | DE | Justin Tuck |
WR | Rod Streater | OLB | Sio Moore |
TE | David Ausberry | MLB | Nick Roach |
LT | Donald Penn | OLB | Khalil Mack |
LG | Khalif Barnes | CB | Tarrell Brown |
C | Stefen Wisniewski | CB | Carlos Rogers |
RG | Austin Howard | SS | Tyvon Branch |
RT | Menelik Watson | FS | Charles Woodson |
K | Sebastian Janikowski | P | Marquette King |
Ben Volin can be reached at ben.volin@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @BenVolin