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Alex Speier

Would the Red Sox be better off without Hanley Ramirez?

Hanley Ramirez spent the 2017 season managing discomfort in both shoulders.John Tlumacki/Globe Staff

In some ways, this seemed an appropriate point of entry for Hanley Ramirez’s fourth — and last guaranteed — season in Boston. On Tuesday afternoon, the slugger tweeted that he’d undergone surgery on his left shoulder.

“Coming back stronger in ’18,” he pronounced.

But will he?

Ramirez did indeed spend the 2017 season managing discomfort in both of his shoulders. He reported to spring training unable to throw. He dealt with discomfort in the left shoulder over the course of the season, something that then-manager John Farrell suggested played a role in late-season biceps soreness that required an MRI in September.

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In virtually every facet of his game, Ramirez was a worse or less valuable performer than he’d been the previous year. He simply didn’t make the same kind of contact he did in 2016, with his average exit velocity dropping nearly 2 miles per hour.

It’s likely that the shoulders played a part in his struggles. Ramirez has long maintained that his front shoulder is critical to his swing and offensive approach.

He learned that lesson when struggling in 2012 following surgery in late 2011 to repair the labrum in his left shoulder. He received a reminder of it in 2015, when his year was derailed by crashing into a wall down the left-field line at Fenway.

“A lot of people don’t know [how important the front shoulder is],” Ramirez told me in 2015, reflecting on a year-long struggle in 2012. “But I knew it.”

Health is unquestionably a key element in evaluating Ramirez’s 2017 struggles. Tuesday’s shoulder cleanup does create the possibility of more comfortable — and more productive — swings in 2018, even if they offer something less than a guarantee for a player who is dealing with longer-term shoulder concerns.

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At the same time, as has been the case at numerous junctures in his career, Ramirez prompted questions in 2017 about his commitment and concentration. If unmeasurable concerns related to effort played a role in his downturn, then it’s difficult to know what kind of production the Sox might get from a player who has shown middle-of-the-order upside and a floor of one of the least valuable players in baseball during the first three years of his contract.

(In 2017, according to Fangraphs, Ramirez was worth -0.4 wins above replacement — meaning that he cost his team about a half-win relative to a replacement-level player — the ninth-worst mark in the majors.)

Hanley's rough year Hanley Ramirez endured a sharp performance decline in 2017
Category 2016 2017
Average .286 .242
OBP .361 .320
Slugging .505 .429
HR 30 23
BB rate (%) 9.7 9.2
K rate (%) 19.4 21.0
Exit velo (mph) 90.3 88.4
Games 147 133
Games at 1B 133 18
WAR (Fangraphs) 2.7 -0.4
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference.com

The Sox appear to be expecting a better version of Ramirez.

“Hanley’s one of the guys that we look for to have a bigger year for us from an offensive perspective,” said president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski last week.

As Peter Abraham writes, the 33-year-old’s arthroscopic surgery was considered relatively minor.

Still, given his lengthy history of shoulder issues, it’s fair to wonder whether he will be able to perform at the top end of his abilities. In many respects, it’s more complicated for the Red Sox to plan around a 2018 team with Ramirez than without him.

Will he be able to play first base, thus freeing the team to pursue someone like J.D. Martinez primarily as a designated hitter? Or, for the second year in a row, might he prove unexpectedly limited in his ability to play the field, thus upsetting the roster blueprint if they don’t add an everyday first baseman?

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Given those questions, it seems fair for the Red Sox to wonder whether they are better off planning a roster with Ramirez or without him. In the eyes of multiple members of the industry, he’s virtually untradeable given (a) the performance questions; (b) a surplus of inexpensive free agent first basemen/DHs; (c) his $22 million salary; and (d) a $22 million vesting option for 2019 that would become guaranteed with 497 plate appearances.

In an offseason when the Sox may need to pursue a top-of-the-market power hitter such as Martinez, it ordinarily would seem ridiculous to wonder whether it makes sense to release Ramirez and thus create a need for a second bat — particularly given that the Sox would thus pay Ramirez $22 million to play elsewhere, while also having to spend on a free agent. (Example: Without Ramirez, the Sox might be left to pursue Martinez while trying to bring back a player like Mitch Moreland on something close to the $5.5 million he received last year.)

Yet releasing Ramirez might permit the Sox to add a player who would be a more reliable roster fit in 2018 while ensuring that they wouldn’t be on the hook for his $22 million vesting option in 2019.

Would the Red Sox rather pay Ramirez $44 million over the next two years or would they rather spend, say, the same sum to release Ramirez and sign a player like Carlos Santana or Jay Bruce to something in the neighborhood of a two-year, $22 million deal? Or would they rather pay $28 million next year to bring back Moreland (while eating Ramirez’s salary) while hoping that Michael Chavis or Sam Travis emerges as an inexpensive option for the position by 2019?

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As ever with Ramirez, it’s . . . complicated. As the Red Sox commence a fascinating, pivotal offseason, they undoubtedly will explore every avenue of potential improvement. On Tuesday, Ramirez’s tweet offered a reminder that it’s hard to say whether he is more likely to be a part of an upgraded roster or an impediment to it.


Alex Speier can be reached at alex.speier@globe.com. Follow him on twitter at @alexspeier.