Before Tuesday night, the city of Dover, N.H., had correctly predicted the winner, and the runners-up, in the last four Democratic presidential primaries.
Now, make that the last five.
Once again, Dover voters’ first choice was the statewide winner: Senator Bernie Sanders. They also matched the statewide finish for the top five candidates, a particularly difficult feat with such a crowded field.
“Dover was right. They did it again,” said David Paleologos, the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, which partners with the Globe on polling. A survey of Dover voters over the weekend showed Sanders and Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Ind., in the lead, with Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota surging after a well-received debate performance. Dover, near the University of New Hampshire in Durham, has about 31,000 residents.
In the city, Sanders won the night, followed by Buttigieg and Klobuchar, with Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and former vice president Joe Biden ranking below them.
But Sanders did slightly better in Dover than he did statewide, surpassing 30 percent of the vote, according to results posted on the city’s website. Warren also fared better, notching nearly 11 percent of the vote, compared to 9 percent statewide. The more moderate candidates — Biden, Buttigieg and Klobuchar — fared slightly worse.
In the past, Dover’s results for the top four came within four percentage points of the statewide results, going all the way back to the 2004 primary, the last with a Republican incumbent. This year, all the candidates except for Sanders fell within that margin.
“The percentages weren’t exact, but within a reasonable amount," said Paleologos. And as for 2024?
“If New Hampshire is still one of the early primary states, Dover should be looked at for sure."