With six months remaining before the November general election, there are few things we know and a whole lot we don’t know in terms of how the rest of the year will play out politically.
For example, we can assume that the national political conversation will be dominated by the presidential race and the novel coronavirus — whether the situation is worse or (hopefully) better. But the coronavirus itself has created unknowns about if there will be national political conventions, if campaigns will door-knock voters, and by what means people will vote.
Still, partisan politics remains, and there are some interesting races in mostly blue New England, where New Hampshire is expected to be a presidential swing state, up for grabs along with a congressional district in northern Maine that President Trump picked off in 2016.
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Here are four races that deserve more attention in the coming months.
US Senate race in Maine
The marquee race in New England this year will be in Maine, where Republican Susan Collins, seeking her fifth term, is facing a very real battle. Collins was first elected to the Senate in 1996 and for years has been seen by voters as a perfect fit for the state’s once-moderate political temperament. But like everywhere else in the country, politics in Maine has become very polarized.
That stratification has to do with the national political environment, but also with former governor Paul LePage, who left office last year. For Collins, however, the main issue has been Trump. Indeed, polling suggests that no Republican in the country has been hurt more by Trump being in office. She was once among the country’s most popular senators. In the Trump era, she now ranks as one of the least popular.
Democrats recruited Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon to challenge Collins and national Democrats have helped her out-raise Collins. (Gideon faces a July 14 primary, but she is widely assumed to win.)
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Part of what is helping fuel Democratic anger at Collins was her support for Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court and her vote to not remove Trump from office after he was impeached. Republicans nationally have come to her aid, but conservatives in Maine are still not happy with her 2017 vote with Democrats to not scrap Obamacare.
There haven’t been a lot of public, independent polls in this race, but those that have been released show the race basically tied.
Let’s be clear: the party that wins in Maine could easily decide who controls the Senate next year. It is almost impossible for Democrats to flip the four seats they need to flip (should Trump win reelection) without winning Maine. It’s one of the reasons it is expected to be the most expensive race in state history.
New Hampshire’s First Congressional District
For some time, New Hampshire’s First Congressional District was known as the “swingiest swing district” in the country. From 2006 to 2016 the seat changed parties five times in six elections.
In 2018, Democratic incumbent Carol Shea-Porter retired and Democrats kept the seat when Chris Pappas, now 39, won a crowded Democratic primary before cruising to victory with a nearly 9-point win in the general election. In so doing, he became the first openly gay person to win major office in the state’s history.
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While New Hampshire has been trending Democratic in the last few decades, Trump narrowly won this district in 2016. That said, Republicans initially struggled with who to put up in this election against Pappas. But now there are two Republicans facing-off in the September primary. One, former Trump administration staffer Matt Mowers, raised more money than any non-incumbent Republican in history in the first three months of 2020. The other, Matt Mayberry, a former vice-chairman of the state Republican Party, has the backing of a few former governors.
National pundits say this race leans Democratic. But if the Trump campaign follows through on its talk to make a big play in this state, it could have big implications in this race.
Maine’s Second Congressional District
Along with New Hampshire’s First District, Maine’s Second Congressional is an area where a Democratic freshman member of Congress represents a district Trump won. To win that district in 2016, Trump visited twice and put in a lot of resources. It is unclear whether he will do that this time.
Democrat Jared Golden, 37, ousted a Republican incumbent in 2018. (A fun fact: Golden used to be a congressional aide to Collins.)
There are three Republicans seeking the nomination, including a former LePage spokeswoman. But if the amount of money raised so far is any indication, then former state senator Eric Brakey is widely leading the contest. Brakey is a former actor who moved to Maine to work on Ron Paul’s 2012 presidential campaign. He was the 2018 Republican nominee for US Senate against incumbent independent Angus King, who easily defeated Brakey.
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Massachusetts US Senate
While this contest won’t really be decided in November (spoiler: a Democrat will win), the Sept. 1 primary is one of the most important Massachusetts elections in a long time and is worth mentioning. Incumbent Senator Ed Markey, 73, is seeking reelection but is being challenged by US Representative Joe Kennedy III, who is 39.
The contest was expected to be a blockbuster featuring a generational divide and, well, a Kennedy on a Massachusetts statewide ballot. While the race will heat up, it is unclear how campaigning in the coronavirus era will change things exactly.
The stakes: if Kennedy wins, he may turn around to run for president soon thereafter. If Markey wins, it is hard to see how he doesn’t have the seat for life.
James Pindell can be reached at james.pindell@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @jamespindell.