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Forecast

Mild start to the weekend, but chilly by Sunday

Highs Saturday will reach well into the 50s, but be 10 degrees colder Sunday.
Highs Saturday will reach well into the 50s, but be 10 degrees colder Sunday.(NOAA)

Somewhere around 10 a.m. Thursday morning, the temperature went above freezing and it will remain there for the foreseeable future. This is good news for our heating bills after a very cold 24 hours by November standards.

One of the first things I did this morning was check the wind direction and noticed it was from the southwest, a warmer flow had begun. When meteorologists talk about a southwest wind, or any wind direction for that matter, we’re telling you what direction the wind is coming from — it’s the opposite of driving. When the wind is southwest, it’s coming from the southwest, and since the air temperatures are warmer southwest of here, our temperatures generally will increase.

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With this flow of air continuing through Saturday, our temperatures will also be on the mild side.

People are still dining outdoors, and the next couple of Friday and Saturday nights will be reasonably comfortable for the time of year.

Low temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning will be above average staying in the 40s.
Low temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning will be above average staying in the 40s.(NOAA)

I expect temperatures around dinner time to be in the upper 40s falling into the mid-40s, certainly chilly, but tolerable for a meal with the addition of heat lamps.

High pressure will remain in control both Friday and Saturday, and if there are clouds to begin the day Friday, they will decrease and Saturday looks like a nice day with afternoon temperatures in the 50s.

We will have a new flow of air by Sunday with a lot of clouds and temperatures in the 40s. It’s actually going to feel quite raw on that day. If you’re taking care of your outdoor activities this weekend, I would definitely plan on doing them Saturday and perhaps accomplish some indoor things on Sunday in those chilly conditions.

Highs Saturday will reach well into the 50s, but be 10 degrees colder Sunday.
Highs Saturday will reach well into the 50s, but be 10 degrees colder Sunday.(NOAA)

A frontal system will approach the area on Monday and bring about a few showers. I’m not expecting a lot of rain, but this will be our best chance of showers activity for a few days.

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We are now less than a week from Thanksgiving and there’s going to be another area of rain factoring into our mid-week forecast. I know some of you are thinking about dining outdoors for Thanksgiving, or perhaps wondering if you can simply eat on a porch and keep the windows open. It continues to look like temperatures will be milder than average, but just how warm they are remains a bit of a question.

There could also be some showers moving in or out of the area for Thanksgiving depending on the timing of this next weather system. Obviously so far ahead of time I’m not going to be able to let you know when the rain will move in or out, but it could be unsettled for some of Thanksgiving. Most importantly, I do think there’s a high likelihood that we are going to be warmer than average.

An area of rain likely affects some parts of the northeast around Thanksgiving.
An area of rain likely affects some parts of the northeast around Thanksgiving.(TropicalTidbits)

Speaking of warmer than average, the national weather service issued its 30-day outlook for December. There is likely to be a revised outlook at some point in the next couple of week,s but this first outlook does show milder than average conditions and maybe a sign of things to come.

I’ll be working on some thoughts about the upcoming winter in the coming weeks, so stay tuned.

The outlook for December shows a majority of the country with a higher likelihood of average or warmer than average temperatures.  Precipitation above and below average is split across the US.
The outlook for December shows a majority of the country with a higher likelihood of average or warmer than average temperatures. Precipitation above and below average is split across the US.(NOAA)