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The first week of spring will be unseasonably dry and warm

Allison Nutting enjoyed the sunshine with her chihuahua Peanut under a tree in the Beaver Brook Reservation in Belmont.
Allison Nutting enjoyed the sunshine with her chihuahua Peanut under a tree in the Beaver Brook Reservation in Belmont.Lane Turner/Globe Staff

As the first full week of spring gets underway, let me first acknowledge that I’m a little freaked out by how dry this month has been but I’m enjoying every second of it.

March is traditionally one of our cloudiest and wettest months and it’s part of the reason why many people who have lived in New England for a long time often say that we don’t get a spring — rather, it goes from being cool and wet to hot and humid.

Of course, April and May could be completely different with lots of rain, but this week is going to be one of the best possible you can get this time of the year.

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You can thank high pressure and its influence for all the dry conditions. High pressure occurs when the air above us starts sinking down and in that process, the air becomes drier and warmer. You’ll notice a large range in temperatures between the early morning and the afternoon this week. There might be a little ground fog in a few spots before the sun rises just before 6:45.

High pressure denoted by an "H" will keep our weather dry much of this week.
High pressure denoted by an "H" will keep our weather dry much of this week.Tropical Tidbits

A quick check at water temperatures in Boston Harbor shows readings in the upper 30s, and this will play a role in the weather this week. Sea breezes are part of living in Eastern New England and springtime is when these coastal cooling machines are most effective.

Water temperatures are cold right now in the New England waters.
Water temperatures are cold right now in the New England waters. NOAA

As the land continues to warm each morning, eventually conditions become favorable for the wind to start blowing in from the east. This pulls that cool ocean air into Boston and other coastal communities and can knock back temperatures dramatically from a 60-degree high into the 40s.

You’ll want to have a jacket with you in the late afternoon if you decide to take advantage of the weather and perhaps enjoy a stroll along the ocean.

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Temperatures are forecast to be above average (warm colors) across the eastern third of the US this week.
Temperatures are forecast to be above average (warm colors) across the eastern third of the US this week.Tropical Tidbits

On Thursday, a southwesterly wind will negate sea breezes and may boost temperatures up near 70. The record for Thursday is 78 degrees so I’m not thinking we’re going to break that, but we are going to be quite a bit above average. There could be a shower in the morning as a warm front comes through, that’s just the diving line between two air masses.

Some of the warmest March 25ths on record have temperatures in the 70s.
Some of the warmest March 25ths on record have temperatures in the 70s. NOAA

In terms of any potentially beneficial rainfall, we’ll have to wait until Friday as a cold front approaches for some showers. Although we had some rain last week, we are still very dry for so early in the season and this continues to be something we will have to keep an eye on.

After the cold front passes, it looks sunny and cooler to start Saturday and then we will need to watch for another potential storm system late in the weekend or early next week.