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Dave Epstein

Weekend forecast: Not a washout, not perfect

A partly cloudy sunset boat ride in Dorchester Bay looking towards UMASS Boston.
A partly cloudy sunset boat ride in Dorchester Bay looking towards UMASS Boston.Stan Grossfeld/Globe Staff

There’s that saying, do you want the good news or the bad news first? I’ll make the decision and tell you the good news. It’s not going to rain all weekend. There will be some dry hours and we will even see some sunshine. The bad news is it’s not going to be dry all weekend. We are going to see showers and potential thunderstorms and even some downpours. Let’s get to the details.

If you were up early today, you noticed it was a little breezy, with plenty of humidity in the air. It stayed in the 70s most of the night and will rebound to the upper 80s to low 90s this afternoon. When you add in the humidity, it will feel in the mid to upper 90s, uncomfortable for most people.

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This model forecast shows it will feel near 100 degrees Friday afternoon.
This model forecast shows it will feel near 100 degrees Friday afternoon.WeatherBELL

There’s a little wind shift boundary that’s setting up this afternoon along and west of I-495. These boundaries act as catalysts for showers and thunderstorms to develop. Then that boundary will move eastward. The line of showers and storms could grow to become quite strong after 4 p.m. as the thunderstorms progress toward the coast. Eventually they will die out heading out for the open Atlantic. There could be some strong gusty wind as well as torrential downpours in any of these storms. Not all of you will see them, some of you will remain completely dry today.

Showers today will cross the region from west to east during the afternoon with some heavy storms possible.
Showers today will cross the region from west to east during the afternoon with some heavy storms possible.WeatherBELL

It will continue to be warm and muggy tonight. With the humidity remaining quite high, you’ll want to plan on hearing the hum of the air conditioners through the night.

Saturday is interesting in that I expect to have some sunshine blended with clouds to start the day. I actually think most of the day is going to be dry. For those of you on the Cape and the islands, low clouds and some fog will greet you during the first part of the day, but then there should be at least partial sunshine.

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During the afternoon on Saturday showers will bubble up. Depending on where you are, the showers could form as early as 1 p.m. or hold off until the end of the day. It’s likely that areas north and west will see the rain earlier than those areas to the south of Boston.

Saturday night features a continuation of the showers and again there could be a few downpours. It’s going to be somewhat random whether you end up with large or small amounts of rain.

Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s with noticeable humidity again.
Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s with noticeable humidity again.WeatherBELL

Let’s take a look at Sunday. Another area of low pressure will ride along this wavy frontal system. Potential strength and exact position of the front will determine whether or not you see heavy rain or just a few scattered showers. The morning appears to be the driest time of the day with the chance of showers growing in the afternoon.

This map shows expected rainfall totals from the GFS model. This gives an idea of rainfall and won’t be exact. Certain towns will see no rain while others see heavy downpours.
This map shows expected rainfall totals from the GFS model. This gives an idea of rainfall and won’t be exact. Certain towns will see no rain while others see heavy downpours.WeatherBELL

Next week looks somewhat unsettled with warm conditions and scattered showers along with sunshine.