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A few months ago, my Memorial Day weekend Sunday barbecue turned into an indoor meal with chili and warm bread. Six weeks later, you could find me sitting in front of an outdoor fire trying to stay warm waiting for the fireworks to begin on the Fourth.

Now it’s Labor Day weekend, and I think all of us can agree it’s nice to have at least some sunshine and seasonable temperatures in the forecast.

Right off the bat, I want to jump to Sunday and the first part of Monday, the part of the weekend when rain could impact your outdoor plans.

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There’s going to be a frontal system approaching New England from the west on Sunday afternoon. I don’t think there’s much doubt that the early morning is going to be dry. Overall the day looks to be mild with temperatures in the 70s along with an increase in cloud cover. Showers shouldn’t arrive until until the afternoon, and if the system slows down a bit we could get by until dark without any rainfall. The showers would be light if they did occur before sunset.

A weather system will approach New England Sunday with showers.
A weather system will approach New England Sunday with showers.Tropical Tidbits

There will be more showers overnight Sunday into the first part of Monday, and here’s where the forecast becomes most tricky.

If this weather system keeps on moving, Monday will start with a few clouds, but the sun will come out during the morning and any showers should have ended. The risk to Monday is that if the system moves a little bit slower and stronger, then the clouds and steady showers will linger up until about noon, especially over Cape Cod. Some of the guidance suggests we could get a quarter inch of rainfall up until about noon on Monday, while other models tend to suggest the rainfall will end before sunrise.

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The GFS model shows measurable precipitation occurring Monday morning.
The GFS model shows measurable precipitation occurring Monday morning.WeatherBell

In lieu of the fact that we’ve had such lousy weather this summer with so many days of rainfall, I’m inclined to be a little more pessimistic on the first part of Monday for now. This means for those of you with outdoor plans Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, you could get wet. Once the sun comes out Monday afternoon, temperatures should reach near 80 degrees. Northern New England will be dry on Monday.

Monday afternoon turns warm with highs near 80 degrees.
Monday afternoon turns warm with highs near 80 degrees.WeatherBell

You’re probably wondering about Saturday now. After a beautiful day today with temperatures around 70 degrees, below average for the time of the year, Saturday will be the clear winner for the weekend. Around 6 a.m. tomorrow, temperatures will be in the 50s warming to the mid-70s with a bluebird sky. This is the easiest and best part of the weekend forecast.

The map above shows the percentage of cloud cover for Saturday. It is about as clear of a forecast as you can get.
The map above shows the percentage of cloud cover for Saturday. It is about as clear of a forecast as you can get.WeatherBell

It will be seasonable on Tuesday of next week before a chance of more showers arriving in the middle of the week.