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A cold front swept offshore early Sunday morning, putting an end to the unusual warmth and humidity of the past week. Temperatures will be seasonably mild to start this week and then once again go into the warmer than average range by the middle of the week. Average temperatures this time of the year are typically in the 40s at night and upper 50s to low 60s during the day. Since it’s been so mild, average temperatures may seem a bit cool.

With the exception of a sprinkle Monday afternoon and showers Thursday night, it is presently looking like a dry workweek.
With the exception of a sprinkle Monday afternoon and showers Thursday night, it is presently looking like a dry workweek.NOAA

There still has not been a frost in Southern New England and it’s unlikely that we will see any this week as well. For the city of Boston, it’s not really that unusual to not have had a frost, but especially for areas west of Route 495 going this deep into the season with tropical flowers still blooming is more unique. A look at the data from Blue Hill in Milton shows many years where frost did not occur into November.

There have been very warm falls historically when frost didn’t occur until November.
There have been very warm falls historically when frost didn’t occur until November.NOAA DATA

I took a look at the projected rainfall for the next 7 to 14 days and it looks overall dry. It’s not really that surprising that the pattern is drying out after all the rain of July, August, and September. At some point, the atmosphere tends to balance itself after extreme wetness.

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The 10-day precipitation forecast indicated below average amounts through late October.
The 10-day precipitation forecast indicated below average amounts through late October.WeatherBELL

While averages look dry, it doesn’t mean we won’t see any rain and there are a couple of opportunities for showers ahead.

This afternoon, clouds will build up and there might be a quick sprinkle over western areas. Elsewhere, puffy clouds will dot the sky. It’s going to feel cool, especially in the shade.

It will then basically remains dry and sunny through Thursday. There will be a warming trend for the middle of the week with temperatures getting back into the lower 70s. The warmth is halted by a cold front Thursday night where there is again the chance for a couple of showers. Friday looks dry and cooler, back into the 60s.

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A peek at the forecast models for the weekend show some discrepancy between the main players. One set of models keeps us relatively dry and cool for Saturday and Sunday. In the other camp, a small low-pressure area affects the region to start the weekend with a chilly rain. Since this is a 5-day forecast, the accuracy is not great and the one thing I am sure of is that it’s not going to be warm either way. By early next week, we’re going to be talking frost. All this warmth has to end at some point.