Before we get to the main event later Tuesday with wind and rain, a warm front is going to approach the area overnight and into early Monday.
The contrast between somewhat humid air to the South and the cool air to the North will create a swath of rain to start the work week.
The heaviest rain will be over by mid to late morning Monday, with a lull in the action thereafter. You should expect a slow morning commute. While there could be some drizzle or a couple of showers I don’t expect a lot of steady rainfall during Monday.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, low pressure is going to form south of New England and become quite intense. As the air pressure within a storm decreases, the storm will become stronger, and this particular one is forecast to have significantly low pressure numbers.
When the pressure drops like this, the atmosphere must balance and wind is the result. Those strong gusts we are likely to see later Tuesday into Wednesday will be due to the air trying to fill in the low pressure area. The deeper the low the stronger the wind.
There is already a high wind watch for Eastern Southern New England, which could be converted into a warning as the confidence in this upcoming storm grows.
Remember just like in winter there’s going to be changes to the forecast so stay tuned over the next couple of days.
The winds could gust over 50 mph at times, and because the leaves are still on the trees power outages are guaranteed it’s just a matter of how bad this is. The computer models have been over forecasting wind gusts the past couple of storms, but this doesn’t mean they’re not going to be spot on this time.
Rainfall will reintensify Tuesday and continue into early Wednesday. Depending on the track of the storm, the heaviest rain may be anywhere from Cape Cod through southern New Hampshire with two to five inches of water likely.
The tides are not astronomically high this week, which is good news. In spite of the nine-foot tide, there still could be some coastal flooding Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Beach erosion is also possible in the storm.
There will be a break later Wednesday for a couple of days, but there is the chance for more stormy weather as we head for the Halloween weekend. The nice weather of this weekend but a faded memory by then.
In conclusion, we have a pretty significant wind and rain storm on the way, and I gave some thought about how to conclude this particular look at the forecast.
I’ve already used the line about how beautiful it’s been and how bad the weather is going to be, but I also should mention the fact that 30 years ago this week a cold front, a low pressure area and Hurricane Grace were all interacting in what would become “The Perfect Storm” also known as the “No Name Storm” since it probably should have been given a name.
That storm, in the closing days of October 1991 was responsible for sinking the Andrea Gail and it’s crew, as well as, wreaking havoc all along the New England coastline, damaging or destroying hundreds of homes.
There was over 200 million dollars in damage, part of the numerous reasons that storm continues to hold a significant spot in the annals of New England weather.
The upcoming storm Tuesday into Wednesday is meteorologically different, but is a reminder that the final days of October can often be dramatic.