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Get ready for a chilly end to meteorological autumn

A dog walker with Boston for the Dogs walked some dogs through Pope John Paul II Park Reservation.Erin Clark/Globe Staff

There’s a small area of low pressure to our east that provided a couple rain and snow showers overnight last night. As the storm continues to develop and pull out into the Atlantic, we’ll see a blend of clouds and sunshine develop for Monday. Highs will reach near 40 this afternoon without a lot of wind. The surface map below shows the position of the storm (the red “L” farthest right) as of early Monday morning. The high (which is the blue “H” over Quebec) will keep us cold and dry for the next few days before milder air arrives midweek.

The surface weather map Monday morning shows high pressure in Quebec about to build into New England.NOAA

As we quickly approach meteorological winter, I think it’s worth noting a piece of instructive information about computer models. The info is accessible, but requires a trained meteorologist to interpret it. Yesterday, one of our short-range models was forecasting Greater Boston to awaken to several inches of snow today. Check out the very incorrect map below! That small storm moving east this morning that brought some showers and flurries overnight was forecast to be stronger and positioned differently. If this had been correct, the plows would be out. Of course, this didn’t materialize and didn’t end up in the forecast, but it’s worth pointing out, because when you see a raw piece of computer model data, especially snowfall predictions, they can be wildly incorrect, even for a 24-hour forecast.

WeatherBELL

I am confident along with the computer models that tonight is going to be one of the colder nights we’ve seen so far this autumn. Temperatures will be within a couple of degrees of 20 in many spots for a hard freeze.

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The final morning of November will be quite cold across southern New England.NOAA

It will take a while to recover Tuesday morning, but eventually, we will be up near 40 in the afternoon, along with sunshine giving way to increasing clouds, a sign of milder weather ahead. The middle part of the week will feature temperatures with slightly above-average readings that get into the 40s on Wednesday for a nice day. It would be a good day to continue raking leaves, as winds will be light.

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The first day of meteorological winter will be a comfortable cool.NOAA

A cold front will approach on Thursday. Ahead of this system, temperatures will reach 50 or even a little higher, but there’s also the chance for a few showers. Typically this time of the year when we get these warm surges, there is often wet weather, so we can’t fully take advantage of it. I don’t expect the rainfall to be very heavy, however. It will turn colder Friday with readings back in the 40s and even colder this weekend, similar to what we just experienced. Hurricane season and meteorological autumn come to an end tomorrow, and I’ll have some stats on each of those later this week.