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Forecast

Snow may be on the way this week

A man uses an umbrella to protect himself from light snow and rain on the Common earlier this year.Craig F. Walker/Globe Staff

An active week of weather ahead will start out with a surge of warm air today followed by cold air returning overnight and Tuesday.

There will be two rounds of showers today. The first will be caused by a warm front, which you can see on the radar below, with a second round of rain to arrive from the west.

Rain moved through southern New England pre-dawn Monday with additional showers set to arrive from New York and Pennsylvania late afternoon and evening.(COD Weather)

Later this afternoon and evening as the cold front approaches, another line of showers will ensue, and some of these could even be accompanied by a rumble of thunder. This will put an end to the unseasonably warm air with highs near 60, and return us to temperatures near freezing by Tuesday morning, with highs tomorrow only near 40.

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Highs on Monday will reach near 60 in many spots.(NOAA)

We will remain on the colder side of the jet stream for a few days. The winds before and after the frontal passage will be strong along the southeast coast where there is a wind advisory. If you have outdoor holiday decorations, I recommend securing them if you live in areas where the wind is forecast to be strongest.

Winds could gust near and over 50 miles per hour south and east of Boston.(NOAA)

With the cold air in place as the next storm system approaches Wednesday, it could be cold enough for snow in many areas. The forecast challenge with Wednesday is that the storm may be too far out in the ocean to bring its precipitation shield very far inland. Currently, I think we’re probably looking at a possible coating to a couple of inches of snow. And whether or not that snow is over Greater Boston or farther north or farther east is yet to be determined.

A storm will track east of New England late Wednesday and bring the chance of accumulating snow to parts of the area.(TropicalTidbits)

If the storm system did jog a little closer to the coastline, we would have to think more about a plowable snow event, but that is unlikely. It’s also possible that the storm takes a track farther east, and we downgrade even more.

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Since there are still three days before the storm would come to an end, it’s best to only consider probabilities. Right now, the probability of seeing over 2 inches of snow is fairly low, with the highest probabilities being over inland areas away from the coastline. Notice in the map below how the Maine coastline has the highest chance of significant snow as the storm will become more intense and pass a little closer to that area. And remember, as I get new information Monday and Tuesday, things inevitably will change, so this forecast is only for this moment in time, based on what we know now.

There is a reasonable chance of a coating to a couple of inches of snow in areas in green, with less chance farther south and across the far north.(NOAA)

Behind the system, it looks like it will be dry for a day or two, and then it will probably turn milder and somewhat unsettled heading into the upcoming weekend. The pattern is definitely not conducive for prolonged cold or snow.