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Mild conditions are in the forecast as dry conditions continue

A park bench provided a sunny perch as a couple enjoyed warm weather on the path around Jamaica Pond in Boston.Lane Turner/Globe Staff

Our midweek weather was pretty stunning with low humidity and mild conditions. And it looks as though we have another very nice day on the way for Thursday — but changes will end the work week and start the long holiday weekend.

Sunshine will be prevalent for Thursday as temperatures get back into the lower to mid-70s after a cool and comfortable start to the day.

A slow-moving area of low pressure will approach on Friday. Although we’ll see a lot of clouds, I don’t expect much in the way of shower activity during the day and if you have outdoor plans I wouldn’t change them because of possible rain. Conditions will feel muggy with highs in the 70s.


If there are any showers, they would likely occur overnight Friday and into Saturday. If we do not see any significant rainfall, we will have to wait until some time in June for the next chance. I’ll get to the extent of the dryness in a moment, but let’s think about the rest of the weekend.

The GFS model has very little rain from any shower activity on Friday night and Saturday.WeatherBell

Being Memorial Day weekend, there’s a lot of activities and right now Sunday and Monday are looking quite nice. I expect sunshine both days. Temperature should be into the 70s perhaps even into the 80s by Monday over inland sections. In order for this forecast to change we’d have to have Saturday’s system slow down, which seems less likely at this point.

We will be on the edge of some 90 degree heat during next week, and depending on the exact position of the boundary some areas could be into the mid-90s once again, especially away from the shore.

Much warmer-than-average conditions will occur to start June.NOAA

As for the dry weather, depending on how you want to define it we are in a drought. There’s different types of droughts, including meteorological, agricultural and hydrological.


Our rivers are running at very low levels. If you look at the past 36 days, we’ve had the fifth driest season on record and the driest conditions for this time of the year since the mid-1960s. These dry conditions will continue and expand until significant rainfall changes the picture.

The past five weeks have been the driest at this time of year in more than half a century.NOAA

The impact of the dry weather thus far is not enormous, although some towns have instituted earlier water bans. And as the leaves have emerged they’re definitely smaller than in wet years, and many of our new and young plants are under stress.

When you blend many of the drought factors together you find eastern Massachusetts in exceptionally dry conditions for this time of year.NOAA

Most of our trees and shrubs need about an inch of water per week, and we are clearly well below this threshold. Patterns can change quite quickly, and it’s not impossible that we end up with a wet June. However, as of now it’s probably best not to rely on mother nature for your watering.