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Forecast

Now that June has arrived, a look at the summer weather ahead

A park bench provided a sunny perch as a couple enjoyed warm weather on the path around Jamaica Pond in May.Lane Turner/Globe Staff

Although you wouldn’t know it by the cool temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday morning, meteorological summer has begun.

Before we get to what is the warmest three months of the year, let’s look back at meteorological spring. It was certainly a warm March through May. The season finished as the 10th warmest on record and those go back to 1872. We did have some rain to conclude the season, nevertheless it ended high on the list as one of the driest on record.

Meteorological spring 2022 was warm and very dry.NOAA data

A drought emerged in the final week of the season, and it remains to be seen if this becomes a bigger problem or if early summer rain can push it back a bit. We did have a few inches of snow in March and the season ended as the 29th least snowy on record.

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This spring weather continued to fit a pattern where winter ends earlier and temperatures warm faster. Remember, weather and climate are different. We can still have colder than average months, but a changing climate makes these less likely.

With meteorological summer under way, there are a few things we know are going to happen. Average temperatures will increase by about 10 degrees this month and remain fairly constant during July and the first part of August before trending lower.

Summer in southern New England is warm and humid with frequent days well above 80 degrees.NOAA

Although last July was incredibly wet for the most part, rain for the next few months typically comes in the form of showers, which tend to be scattered. Widespread rain, which lasts an entire day, is a less common occurrence.

The pollen, which has been notable the past few days, will transition from tree pollen over to grass pollen, and finally, ragweed later in the summer. Mold can also be an issue this time of the year.

In the garden, there is still time to plant your warm-weather crops. Later this summer, you can also try second plantings of things like radishes, peas and more kale as the cooler weather starts to arrive again.

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June can certainly bring very hot weather, but for the first couple of weeks, it’s looking quite comfortable. The outlook through the middle of the month keeps New England having the greatest chance of average weather.

The first half of June is forecast to have mostly typical temperatures.NOAA

The overall summer outlook is for warmer-than-average temperatures, which again because of climate change is more likely. The last truly cooler-than-average summer was back in 2009.

Seasonal precipitation outlook.NOAA
The summer outlook from NOAA is for warmer than average conditions.NOAA

Finally, summer nights have exhibited the greatest warming over the past 30 years. Of the top 10 summers with the warmest overnight lows, eight of them have occurred since 2010. Make sure your air conditioners are ready to go: most of you will need them to sleep comfortably for the next few months.

Summer nights have warmed much faster than the days across greater Boston.NOAA data