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Forecast

New England may get a storm, but we’re also going to get a heat wave

The Boston Common Frog Pond spray pool offered a good spot to cool off on a recent hot day.John Tlumacki/Globe Staff

We’re just about halfway through meteorological summer — those warmest months of the year — and it’s going to be toasty this week.

If you looked at a chart of average temperature in Greater Boston, you would see that the warmest air typically occurs around July 21, and it’s no surprise that this week is going to be the hottest week of the summer so far.

The third week of July is on average the warmest of the year.NOAA

With a frontal system approaching Monday, clouds will be plentiful yet rain will not. As the moisture moves toward the coastline, it will lose its potency, and the best chance of afternoon and evening showers and storms will be well west of Route 495 and north into New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine.

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The total precipitation forecast for Monday shows no rain is expected in Greater Boston. That doesn’t mean a thunderstorm couldn’t make it east, but the odds aren’t great.

The chance of showers is low Monday and Monday evening.WeatherBELL

If you do get a shower before midnight, consider your town lucky. The chance of severe weather isn’t high today, but it’s also not zero. There could be some small cells that produce severe criteria of hail or damaging wind, but it won’t be widespread.

There is a marginal risk of severe weather Monday afternoon and evening.NOAA

On Tuesday, clouds will give way to sunshine with temperatures at or above 90 degrees in the afternoon. This 90-degree weather is going to continue into the weekend, and many towns will experience their first heat wave — three days or more of 90-degree weather — of the season.

Our drought continues to get worse and will not improve anytime soon.

Summer droughts have been present in New England for decades. Although the climate is certainly getting warmer, as of yet we have not seen an increase in the number of droughts. Some computer models forecast what we’re seeing this summer to become more typical over the next 30 years, but this has not materialized yet.

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Drought in July since the late 1800’s has not increased.NOAA

Beaches will be a popular place this week, and there will be some relief at the water’s edge. The sun is still very strong, but we’re coming up on a month past the solstice, meaning the sun angle is lowering and we are continuing to lose daylight at more than 1.5 minutes each day. This will increase to 2 minutes next week.

Other than warm and humid nights and sunny hot days, the only other chance of a shower comes sometime later Thursday, but most people won’t see them, and the sun will be the dominant feature besides the heat.

This week could easily end up as the hottest week for the entire summer.WeatherBELL

If you’re not a fan of hot and humid weather, this week will be tough. But New England weather is ever-changing, so it’s not going to stay hot forever and it is going to rain again.