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Forecast

Great weekend weather ahead, but drought worsens

Drought brought a toll this week at Presidents Golf Course in Quincy.David L. Ryan/Globe Staff

It’s Friday, the weekend is here, and the weather is going to be pretty spectacular.

A few showers Thursday night didn’t do anything to alleviate the drought in greater Boston, and our only chance of rain between now and next weekend is tonight. Some computer models are calling for .1 to .5 an inch of rain after midnight, while other models show no rain at all. .

A batch of showers is forecast to be mostly offshore overnight Friday.Tropical Tidbits

It would be great to get some rain overnight Friday into Saturday, but even if we got half an inch it’s only going to slow down the growing drought. To have a drought buster storm, the area would need inches of rain over several days or weeks, and that is not in the cards.

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Drought conditions in the Northeast.NOAA

In fact, I’m seeing growing signs of building heat for next week. After a beautiful weekend where temperatures will be in the 80s along with comfortable levels of humidity, 90-degree weather is going to return. It’s not out of the question that a few towns hit 90 on Sunday, but it’s really Monday when temperatures are going to climb back to those levels. Once we hit 90 on Monday, it’s likely to continue until next weekend.

Sunny and dry weather is likely all of the upcoming week.NOAA

A big dome of high pressure will sit over much of the country next week. The term “heat dome” basically means that the air continues to sink, and as it sinks it warms up. That warming air limits cloud cover and certainly any precipitation. The hottest air is going to be in the central portion of the United States next week and will then start to spill eastward toward the end of the week.

Unusually high pressure at 18,000 feet will bring hot temperatures to New England much of next week.Tropical Tidbits

The ensemble models, which are basically a collection of the same forecast run with slight variations, point towards 100-degree weather as a possibility on Thursday and Friday of next week.

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The reason I mentioned the ensembles is because when they start showing relatively high percentages of a particular variable such as high heat or lots of rain or even big cold, the odds of it materializing also increase. Think of ensemble forecasting as cooking with a recipe but varying in what order you put in the ingredients or perhaps small variations in what you’re using. If the recipe tastes the same no matter what, you have high confidence in the outcome. It’s the same with the ensembles: If I make little changes and I still get a high chance of 100-degree weather, I feel more comfortable with my forecast.

There is a relatively high probability of temperatures nearing 100 degrees later next week.WeatherBELL

The heat wave is likely to last 4 to 6 days, followed by some cooler weather. Will the end of the next heatwave be accompanied by rain? It’s anybody’s guess but I certainly don’t see a cooler weather pattern on the horizon as of yet.