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Forecast

As Thanksgiving approaches, a dry November will continue

Walkers, bikers, and dogs on the Minuteman Commuter Bikeway in Arlington.Dina Rudick

I often think of November as a fairly stormy month; however, in keeping with much of the year, there hasn’t been a lot of precipitation, with the month’s total running about an inch below average.

November is still significantly warmer than average in spite of the record cold.NOAA

It started out as a very warm month and even though it’s been chilly the past week, temperatures are still running five degrees above average. I suspect that this number will continue to shrink, but it’s still likely the month ends up warmer than average.

While most of the area is no longer in a drought, I would like to see a couple of rain events before the ground fully freezes; this tends to help mitigate winter damage to our plants, which can suffer if the soil is really dry.

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With a little over a week left, time is running out for a big storm, and what might have looked like a stormy Thanksgiving Day with significant rain is now looking drier. For those football games, Thursday morning temperatures will be rising through the 30s to the lower 40s by midday. This is quite comfortable for this time of year.

A weak weather system may bring some showers Friday, but they will be quite light and some areas could miss them altogether.TropicalTidbits

All of this certainly bodes well for those of you who are traveling over the next several days. The map below shows expected precipitation during the 24 hours between sunrise Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day. Notice there is very little precipitation across the entire country; this includes no significant widespread snow.

Between Wednesday and Thursday morning this week, very little precipitation will fall across most of the US.TropicalTidbits

Of course we all heard about what went on in western New York with the extreme snow, but that was a localized event and as of yet there haven’t been any major wintry events in New England.

You might be surprised, however, that there is snow cover to the north. I was looking at this morning’s map showing a good chunk of Northern New England with at least some snow. With the cold weather continuing up there through Thanksgiving, some of the more rural spots will have a white holiday.

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A significant chunk of northern New England actually has some snow cover to start Thanksgiving week.NOAA

With December approaching, I’ll end with a chart showing how average temperatures continue to tumble throughout the next month. We will not reach the climatological coldest part of winter until the third week of January. This doesn’t mean that the coldest weather can’t come before or after that in any given season, but on average January is typically the coldest month.

The good news, by then, we will have been gaining daylight for a full month!

Average temperatures will continue to steadily decline throughout December.NOAA