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Forecast

As November ends and December begins, expect some weather swings

A child admired himself in the reflection of a Christmas ball hung from a tree outside of Faneuil Hall Marketplace.Erin Clark/Globe Staff

There will be lots of quick changes to the weather over the next seven days, but any cold is relatively fleeting. After waking up this morning, I headed downstairs to quickly check the rain gauge. I was pleased to see two-thirds of an inch and we can expect a little more later this week. It’s good to have the ground moist as it will eventually freeze and this helps get our evergreens and other plants through the winter successfully.

You may have noticed how mild it is this morning with temperatures in the 50s and there’s actually a small amount of humidity in the air. A cold front will slip through during the middle part of the day, bringing a blend of clouds and sunshine. Temperatures will get knocked back into the 30s this afternoon on a northwest flow of air.

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Drier air moves into the area this afternoon as noted in the brown shades on this dew point map.COD Weather

Temperatures will fall well below freezing overnight with most of you in the 20s for Tuesday morning. Weather will be seasonable tomorrow afternoon as highs get into the 40s under mainly sunny skies and relatively light wind. A strong cold front is going to approach on Wednesday. That day will feature a dry morning commute and a wet evening one. Winds will pick up out of the south, propelling warm and unseasonably humid air for the season into the region. This is the final day of meteorological autumn and some spots may even nudge 60 degrees. Showers will not be long lasting, but there could be a few downpours and it wouldn’t surprise me if we even see a thunderstorm or two on the radar.

Winds could gust over 40 miles per hour on Wednesday afternoon ahead of a cold front.NOAA

Once this system clears, it’s back to the sunshine and cooler weather for Thursday and Friday. Winds will be quite gusty Thursday and much lighter for Friday. The upcoming weekend, the first one of December, brings mild and dry conditions with no weather issues for those of you continuing your holiday shopping.

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We are quickly approaching the earliest sunset of the year, which will occur in a little over a week on December 8. Thereafter, we will very slowly gain time in the afternoon but still lose more time in the morning. The gap between sunrise and sunset will be at its smallest on the winter solstice which is the 21st of the month.

The earliest sunset occurs nearly two weeks before the winter solstice.Dave Epstein

Finally, although I do see it relatively mild for the first week of December, there are growing signs that things will turn colder after that. I’ll leave you with two maps to evaluate. Both of these show average temperature anomalies. The first takes us through December 7, the second December 7-14. Notice the colder air, or the bluer colors, starts moving into New England and the warmer weather starts moving out west. This is a sign of the upcoming changing pattern. In other words, all this mild stuff isn’t going to stick around.

Warmer than average continues overall are likely for the first week of December as shown by this map from the GFS model.WeatherBELL
Colder than average conditions are more likely in the east for the second week of December as shown by this GFS model forecast.WeatherBELL