Though we’ve just started the second week of February, you might be wondering if winter is over before it even really began.
Let me say at the outset that we could still see a big snowstorm in late February or March but the odds of deep snow and prolonged cold are rapidly vanishing. The late start to winter was a good indicator that this wasn’t going to be a blockbuster season.
Historical records confirm when winters start mild and don’t produce a lot of snow they tend to end up mild without a lot of snow. This isn’t always the case, but it happens often enough to not be discounted.
Our current winter is actually running the least snowy to this point ever recorded. While it’s only by a couple of inches, it’s another marker in what we’ve all been experiencing, in spite of the cold last weekend.
If you’re someone who uses home heating oil and have consistently kept the temperature similar to last year, you probably have noticed you’ve used less oil. Heating degree days, which help energy companies measure the amount of fuel needed for our homes, have been lower than last year and significantly lower than average.
This is just another marker in our mild winter.
The next weather system will move in Thursday evening, with another round of showers. Even across Northern New England, any snowfall will be limited to the higher elevations. There might be 1 to 4 inches of snow for those ski areas, certainly helpful, but not a big storm.
Behind this it will be fairly mild, especially Friday morning. Temperatures could be as much as 30 degrees above average for sunrise, which would put us in the 40s and even 50s.
The longer-range forecast keep us milder than average through the middle of the month and beyond. It’s not until we get to the final days of February and into early March when there is the possibility of a colder pattern.
It would not be surprising to see a week or two of cold and snow in a few weeks, but that is certainly not a forecast. What we’ve seen is that forecasts of cold and snow in the long range tend to modify over time — that’s the reason why the winter of 2022-23 continues to be a dud.