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How will the NFL quarterback market shake out? Here’s an educated guess.

Aaron Rodgers's time in Green Bay could be up, and if so, he could land with the Jets.Morry Gash/Associated Press

The NFL quarterback market this offseason should come with seatbelts. It’s going to be spinning furiously for about half of the league.

As many as 17 of the 32 teams could be involved in the quarterback market. The franchise tag deadline is Tuesday at 4 p.m., and free agency starts at 4 p.m. March 15.

Derek Carr didn’t have to wait, though, and he filled the first seat Monday, reportedly agreeing to a deal with the Saints. Carr, released by the Raiders last month, was smart to sign now instead of waiting around for the Jets or other teams to make their moves. The longer you wait, the harder it is to get a seat.


Let’s take a look at the rest of the market and predict how the musical chairs will be filled. Also included are four quarterbacks I expect to be drafted in the first round:

▪ Aaron Rodgers: Jets (trade). I wrestle with this one, because I would bet Rodgers doesn’t really want to leave Green Bay and start over with a new team. And it’s really hard to see him retiring and walking away from $59 million guaranteed. But I also think Rodgers can tell that the Packers really don’t want him back and are ready for Jordan Love.

The Jets look like the only realistic landing spot. The Packers may have to eat a good chunk of that guaranteed money to facilitate a trade.

▪ Lamar Jackson: Ravens (exclusive franchise tag). It doesn’t sound like the Ravens and Jackson have made any progress on a long-term deal, leaving the Ravens little choice but to apply the exclusive franchise tag. It will guarantee him a salary of $45 million, and the sides would have until July 15 to work out a long-term contract.


The exclusive tag removes Jackson from speaking with any other team in free agency, but he and the Ravens could still work out a trade, though that seems unlikely. Jackson is massively popular in the locker room and in Baltimore.

The Ravens have to be worried about Jackson not signing his tender and holding out during training camp and potentially beyond, but at least that’s on Jackson, not the team.

▪ Daniel Jones: Giants (contract extension). His new agents have been making a lot of noise about him getting more than $40 million per year, which seems ludicrous on its face. The Giants could easily give him the non-exclusive franchise tag at $32.4 million, but they reportedly called his agents to New Jersey Monday and seem to want to use the tag on Saquon Barkley. So perhaps Jones does get his $40-plus million (though the real test is how many years are guaranteed). Either way, he will be a Giant.

Daniel Jones passed for a career-high 3,205 yards for the Giants last season.Matt Rourke/Associated Press

Jimmy Garoppolo: Raiders. Despite yet another injury, Garoppolo still had a great 11-game season for the 49ers (103.0 passer rating), is only 31, and would be a good fit for teams like the Falcons, Commanders, and Buccaneers. The Titans are intriguing, given Garoppolo’s ties to new general manager Ran Carthon, who was in San Francisco from 2017-22.

But I see Garoppolo reuniting with Josh McDaniels in Las Vegas to be the veteran seat-warmer while the Raiders groom a young QB. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Raiders sign Jarrett Stidham to be Garoppolo’s backup.


▪ Ryan Tannehill: Falcons (trade). The Titans are holding a much-needed fire sale, and a trade would shed Tannehill’s $27 million salary while saving nearly $18 million on the cap. The Jets make a lot of sense if they don’t go for Rodgers, and I’m sure the Commanders would love Tannehill.

But a reunion with coach Arthur Smith, Tannehill’s former offensive coordinator, makes the most sense and would help the Falcons become playoff contenders.

▪ Geno Smith: Seahawks. Smith is returning to Seattle on a three-year deal. The Seahawks also should consider drafting a mid-round quarterback to develop, as in 2012 when they signed Matt Flynn and drafted Russell Wilson in the third round.

▪ Jacoby Brissett: Buccaneers. His role in the NFL is seemingly to wander from city to city, playing for whichever team doesn’t have a starting quarterback. The Cardinals make sense, but I see Brissett, a Florida native, picking the Bucs, who have only Kyle Trask under contract.

▪ Matt Ryan: Commanders. They have only Sam Howell under contract, but no quarterback worth his salt wants to go to Washington, and the Commanders aren’t in a great spot to draft one with the 16th pick. Instead, Ron Rivera talks himself into signing Ryan.

▪ Marcus Mariota: Cardinals. They need a quarterback as Kyler Murray returns from an ACL surgery and Colt McCoy deals with an undisclosed injury. Mariota and his mobility make sense.


▪ Teddy Bridgewater: Broncos. Sean Payton has always had an affinity for Bridgewater, and the Broncos need a competent backup in case they bench Wilson for financial reasons at some point.

▪ Baker Mayfield: Titans. Malik Willis probably isn’t ready to start if the Titans trade Tannehill, the 11th pick might not be good enough to get a QB, and the rebuilding Titans don’t want to trade up and give up picks. So bringing in a low-cost option like Mayfield for a year is the answer.

▪ Sam Darnold: Panthers. They have the No. 9 pick and clearly want a QB of the future. But Darnold played decently in his six starts last year, and I think the Panthers bring him back to be the seat-warmer.

What does the future hold for Sam Darnold?Butch Dill/Associated Press

▪ Bryce Young: Colts (trade up to No. 1). The Colts are desperate to draft a quarterback after cycling through four veterans in four years. And GM Chris Ballard is desperate to keep his job after the previous coaching staff just got whacked. So here’s betting the Colts trade up from No. 4 to 1 to get the best quarterback in the draft.

▪ C.J. Stroud: Texans. Nick Caserio should be content to sit back and take whichever QB falls to him at No. 2, which right now looks like Stroud, arguably the smoothest passer in the draft.

▪ Will Levis: Panthers (trade up). The No. 9 pick probably won’t get it done for a QB, so I see the desperate Panthers making a move to get this big, strong-armed pocket passer.


▪ Anthony Richardson: Raiders. His completion percentage last year was abysmal (52.4), and he is a major project. That said, his athleticism and potential are off the charts, and McDaniels will make sure he gives Richardson all of the time he needs by putting Garoppolo and Stidham ahead of him. Richardson’s fit with the Raiders is too perfect not to happen.

Ben Volin can be reached at ben.volin@globe.com.