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Will we have a scorching summer in New England? Here’s what the forecasters are saying.

Carson Beach in South Boston last summer.Jonathan Wiggs/Globe Staff

Time to get out the tank tops. After a hot Sunday, Monday and Tuesday were cool and refreshing in New England. But don’t expect it to last. National Weather Service forecasters say a warmer-than-average summer could be ahead.

The weather service’s Climate Prediction Center, in a forecast for June, July, and August, said people could experience above-normal temperatures over parts of the West, Southwest, Southeast, and along the Eastern Seaboard to New England.

“The largest probabilities of above normal temperatures (60 to 70 percent) are forecast over the Southwest, and probabilities reach 50 to 60 percent along the coast from Texas to New England,” forecasters said.


New England could see a warmer-than-normal summer.Climate Prediction Center/National Weather Service

Will there be any rain to provide relief? The forecasters saw an equal chance of above-normal, below-normal, and normal precipitation in most of New England, except for a small slice of Western Massachusetts and Connecticut that was projected to have more rain than usual.

Above-normal precipitation was also most likely in parts of the Southeast, mid-Atlantic, and lower and middle Mississippi Valley, while below-normal precipitation was predicted in the Pacific Northwest and Southwest, the same area that’s expected to see above-normal heat, the forecasters said.

Forecasters said chances were equal of above-normal, below-normal, and normal precipitationClimate Prediction Center/National Weather Service

Earlier this month, predicted that Boston will have 14 to 18 90-degree days, near or above the average of 15, but fewer than last year’s sizzling summer, when 21 were recorded.

Researchers at the University of Massachusetts Climate System Research Center have reported that last summer was the state’s second-warmest since recordkeeping began. also predicted the Northeast could have a wet and stormy start to the summer before drier weather in August that could lead to some pockets of drought.

Scientists say that burning fossil fuels is the leading cause of global warming.

The 10 warmest years recorded globally have all occurred since 2010. With the world already off to a hot start this year, the National Centers for Environmental Information say it’s virtually certain (greater than 99.5 percent probability) that 2023 will join the top 10, and a 92.9 percent chance it will rank among the top five.


One result of the warming is that summers in the Northern Hemisphere are getting longer and hotter, according to a 2021 study in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Martin Finucane can be reached at