Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile defense system could do nothing against the hundreds of Hamas fighters who stormed the country last weekend. But a prominent US scientist says Iron Dome is also failing at the job it was designed for — shooting down short-range rockets fired into Israel by Hamas.
Theodore Postol, professor emeritus of science, technology, and national security policy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, became famous in the aftermath of the 1991 Gulf War for disputing the reliability of the US Patriot anti-missile system. His research showed that, contrary to claims by the US military, Patriot interceptors were rarely successful in shooting down Soviet-made Scud missiles fired at Israel and Saudi Arabia. A September 1992 report from the US General Accounting Office confirmed that Postol was right, concluding that only 9 percent of Patriot launches resulted in a definite Scud kill.
Postol, now retired and living in California, said that if anything, the Iron Dome system is even less reliable.
“There’s some evidence of an intercept very occasionally,” Postol said in an interview. But he claims that the great majority of the Iron Dome interceptors miss their targets altogether. “I would say that the intercept rate is at best 4 or 5 percent,” said Postol, adding that it might be as low as 1 percent. “It’s so low, it’s very hard to tell,” he said.
Iron Dome is made by two Israeli companies, Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries, and fires rockets co-developed by the Raytheon division of US defense conglomerate RTX. It’s designed to track and shoot down the small, unguided short-range rockets often fired at the country by Hamas. Iron Dome has a range of about 70 kilometers, or 43 miles. Since deployment began in 2011, Israel has claimed that Iron Dome has successfully intercepted hundreds of rockets, with a success rate of over 90 percent. This means that when Iron Dome opens fire on an incoming rocket, there’s a 90 percent chance of a successful intercept.
That doesn’t mean that Iron Dome takes out 90 percent of all rockets fired at Israel. The system is designed to discriminate based on the likely landing point of an incoming rocket. Iron Dome ignores rockets aimed at rural areas, but responds to a rocket that’s heading for the center of a city.
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But Postol says the 90 percent success rate is a myth. As with his research into Patriot anti-missile performance, Postol relies on photographic images of attempted Iron Dome intercepts. Postol said he’s reviewed about 100 images, some shot by still cameras and others by video cameras. He claims that the photos show Iron Dome warheads exploding too far away from the rockets to knock them down. The exploding warhead gives the impression of a successful intercept, but in reality, Postol says, the incoming rocket just keeps going.
“They can produce no evidence that the system is working,” Postol said. “It’s a fraud perpetuated by the Israeli government on its own people. It’s also perpetrated on the American taxpayer because we’re paying for everything.” The US has provided Israel with $3 billion to finance the Iron Dome program, according to a Congressional Research Service report.
Frederick Lamb, a research professor of physics at the University of Illinois and faculty member in the program on Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security, agrees that Postol was right about the Patriot system. But Lamb said he has no reason to doubt Israeli claims of the system’s effectiveness.
“Of the missiles that it seeks to destroy, the best numbers are that it destroys 80 to 90 percent,” said Lamb. “I trust the assessments that I’m citing.”
Chad Ohlandt, senior engineer at the RAND Corporation, a national security think tank, also accepts Israel’s estimates. “I have no reason to doubt the Israeli Defense Force’s claims of 95 percent effectiveness,” said Ohlandt, who holds a doctorate in aerospace engineering.
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Ohlandt added that to conduct a rigorous assessment of Iron Dome’s performance, Postol would need detailed technical data held by the Israeli government. “Any actual information is classified, and so he doesn’t have the actual numbers,” Ohlandt said.
In response, Postol said, “It’s the same argument they made when we said Patriot didn’t work. It’s all classified.”
He said that Israelis would be better served by simply taking cover during rocket barrages. Most of the rockets carry warheads too small to do major structural damage to buildings, he said. “It’s the fragments and flying debris that kill people.” As Israel has a robust air raid alert system to warn of incoming rockets, Postol believes that quickly taking shelter will provide more protection than Iron Dome.
Hiawatha Bray can be reached at hiawatha.bray@globe.com. Follow him @GlobeTechLab.