The annual United Nations climate talks, COP28, ended earlier this week with a historic agreement that, for the first time, addresses all fossil fuels — the root cause of the worsening climate crisis. While it didn’t explicitly call for a “phaseout,” the UAE Consensus sends a strong signal that world leaders are committed to transitioning away from coal, oil, and gas and aggressively ramping up renewable energy and energy efficiency. This is a solid foundation for a clean energy transformation, secured in the face of tremendous opposition from fossil fuel interests. But it can quickly crumble if policy makers don’t follow through with climate-aligned policies, investments, and changes to the global economic architecture.
The latest science is clear that nations must steeply cut global heat-trapping emissions within this critical decade and achieve net-zero emissions no later than 2050 to have any chance of meeting global climate goals. That requires rapid, deep, and sustained cuts in fossil fuel use and production — the primary contributor to human-caused climate change. Fossil fuels are also a huge public health menace, causing millions of deaths and illnesses every year around the world and exacerbating environmental injustices.
Making that shift on a global scale will require trillions of dollars of investments over the coming decades, according to the International Energy Agency. That funding is especially necessary for low- and middle-income countries that are trying to address energy poverty and cope with rapidly worsening climate change impacts while transitioning to clean energy. And that’s where the COP28 agreement falls short: It doesn’t require richer nations to shoulder the responsibility of providing finances to help developing countries transform their energy systems rapidly. Without financial support, it will be impossible for many developing countries to make this transition swiftly — and indeed unfair to expect that they would do so. And without that support, they would be forced to continue to depend on expensive, polluting fossil fuels rather than making the switch to a cleaner, healthier energy system.
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At the climate talks, Colombian minister for the environment Susana Muhamad spoke powerfully of the tough choices her country faces: Current economic incentives are operating contrary to climate goals. The president’s announcement that Colombia would halt expansion of new fossil fuel projects was harshly punished by the global financial system, sending the peso plunging and negatively affecting the nation’s credit rating. It’s not enough to have a strong signal that the era of fossil fuels is coming to an end; low- and middle-income countries must also have commitments that the new clean energy age will be well-funded and supported. Reforms to the multilateral bank lending system, additional grant-based public finance, and funding for a just transition for workers and communities currently dependent on fossil fuels are crucial.
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In the United States, there is tremendous opportunity to accelerate the deployment of wind and solar energy, battery storage, electric vehicles, and public transit, as well as increase energy efficiency in homes and businesses through investments from the Inflation Reduction Act. Pollution standards for vehicles, power plants, and for reducing methane emissions from the oil and gas sector, along with state clean energy policies, are a significant boost. However, US oil and gas production and exports are at record-breaking levels, threatening to undermine that progress and deeply at odds with an equitable global phaseout of fossil fuels; they must be tapered down.
The COP28 agreement also leaves ambiguity and loopholes around the role of technologies like carbon capture and storage in the clean energy transition. The reality is that these technologies cannot contribute meaningfully to 2030 emission reductions. In the longer term, they might be needed to address emissions from hard-to-abate sectors, such as steel and cement, but that’s a very limited and bounded role, not an escape hatch. The core unavoidable task is sharply reducing global reliance on fossil fuels and quickly substituting them with clean energy resources.
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The writing is on the wall, and that’s why fossil fuel interests and petrostates did their utmost to block a strong outcome in Dubai. Those same interests hold too much sway over domestic policies and policy makers too, and fossil fuel companies are raking in billions in profits even as the planet burns. We won’t be able to reach our climate goals without disrupting their power and holding them accountable for the damage their products cause.
It’s no small thing that, after 30 years of UN climate talks, there’s finally global agreement to transition away from fossil fuels. That win — imperfect as it is — belongs to the small island nations; to nations like Colombia trying to do their part; to the millions of climate activists, Indigenous people, scientists, environmental justice advocates, and health professionals who rallied for a call to phase out fossil fuels at COP28.
The fight continues now to make sure countries don’t just phase out fossil fuels but that nations — especially wealthy, high-emitting ones most responsible for climate change — fully fund the era of plentiful, affordable clean energy for all.
Rachel Cleetus is policy director of the Climate and Energy Program for the Union of Concerned Scientists.
