‘We need you to keep the faith.’ Haley leaning on Massachusetts, other Super Tuesday states to keep campaign alive.

NEEDHAM — On paper, Massachusetts could be fertile ground to help sustain Nikki Haley’s quixotic bid for the GOP presidential nomination against Donald Trump.

The state party’s delegate rules offer incentive to campaign here. It’s rich with independent voters, who make up 64 percent of the electorate and can vote in any party’s primary. The state is also plain rich-rich: Even if voters don’t turn out, deep-pocketed donors often do.

In reality, Massachusetts may just be another nail in her campaign’s nearly finished coffin.

Haley’s decision to steer her campaign to this wealthy Boston suburb Saturday with a dual fund-raiser and rally underscores the long odds — and tough math — the former South Carolina governor faces entering Super Tuesday, when voters here and 14 states will cast ballots in what may be the last gasp of choice in the GOP primary.

Massachusetts’ Republican base, while diminished, largely still stands with Trump, who easily won the primary here in 2016 and 2020. Her campaign stop in Needham on Saturday aside, Haley has largely not invested money, time, or operations here. And even should she over-perform on Tuesday, Massachusetts’ return of delegates is small: It offers 40 of the total 854 available on Tuesday.

Under state party rules, it’s possible Haley could walk away with none of the 40. If one candidate captures more than 50 percent of the vote, he or she sweeps the state’s delegates. But if no one hits that threshold, the party then awards the delegates proportionally to anyone who receives 10 percent or more of the vote.

The possibility of losing but still capturing some delegates helps explain why Haley would invest time campaigning here. But polls suggest she faces long odds in actually doing so: A Suffolk University poll last month showed Trump claiming 55 percent of support from likely GOP primary voters.

“She coalesces that group of the never-Trump, country club Republican-type. She gives those people a focal point,” Wendy Wakeman, a Massachusetts-based GOP strategist, said of Haley. “But I don’t see her campaign having done anything to think she’s going to make a bigger impact in Massachusetts than she’s made anywhere else.”

Those headwinds, of course, have not grounded Haley yet. Despite mounting primary losses, including in her home state, Haley has pressed on, vowing to offer an alternative to both Trump and President Biden and urging voters to embrace making “America normal again.”

She’s hopped from state to state throughout the week, with appearances in Utah, Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia, and elsewhere. Her campaign said Friday it raised $12 million in February, and before Saturday night’s rally, she huddled with donors and others, including former governor Bill Weld, in a fund-raiser hosted by a group that included New Balance chairman Jim Davis.

Speaking to a few hundred people who packed into a Sheraton hotel ballroom for the rally, Haley hit Trump several times, including for reported comments threatening lobbyists in Washington with losing access to him if they don’t turn out to vote.

“You can’t threaten people. You can’t push them out. Because that is not a winning combination,” Haley said. She also sought to spin her primary losses so far as signs of weakness for Trump, noting she got 40 percent of the vote in other early-voting states and campaigned in Michigan for just “two days and we got 30 percent of the vote.” (She got just under 27 percent.)

“We need you to be loud,” she told the crowd. “We need you to keep the faith and the hope because there’s a lot of us and they can’t just ignore all of us.”

For being her only public campaign event in Massachusetts since launching her campaign, the rally had a distinctive New Hampshire feel. She was introduced by Don Bolduc, a former US Senate candidate — in New Hampshire, not Massachusetts — as well as New Hampshire governor Chris Sununu, who ribbed Massachusetts for its sale tax and swiped at both Governor Maura Healey and Boston Mayor Michelle Wu while urging the state’s voters to give Haley “momentum” on Super Tuesday.

“You guys can throw gasoline on that fire, and really, really show the rest of this country that we ain’t over by a long shot,” Sununu said.

Jeanine Carlson, an independent voter from Lincoln who attended Saturday’s event, said she voted for Trump in 2020, but came to see Haley because she believes she is “reasoned and competent.”

“She seems to be the only adult in the race,” said Carlson. “She’s worthwhile coming out for on a horrible, rainy night.”

US Republican presidential hopeful and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley posed for pictures with supporters during a campaign rally in Needham Saturday night. JOSEPH PREZIOSO/AFP via Getty Images

That her campaign chose Needham — a suburb that, like most of the state, includes predominantly unenrolled voters — was more about logistics than any political strategy, said Jennifer Nassour, a former state GOP chair and one of Haley’s leading Massachusetts surrogates. The town is tucked between Interstate 95 and the Massachusetts Turnpike, making it a more convenient location than, say, downtown Boston.

“There’s no reason for Nikki to go anywhere [but stay in the race]. She has the right message, the right tone,” Nassour said.

“What I hear from people all the time, especially from Republicans, in November is: ‘Our vote doesn’t matter. Our choices are crap.’ But right now [in the primary] there is an opportunity to shape the future,” she said. For Haley, “it’s not about winning the state. It’s about delegate math.”

Still, a lone event held effectively on the eve of a primary is unlikely to generate the energy or support Haley’s campaign would otherwise need, said Rob Gray, a Republican strategist and an adviser to the late John McCain’s 2008 presidential bid.

“You have to spend money on advertising and a campaign operation and likely outspend your opponent by a significant margin to surpass them,” Gray said. “And Nikki Haley’s spending close to zero in Massachusetts.”

Haley’s campaign said it launched a “seven-figure” ad buy across Super Tuesday states, with spots appearing on cable and digital platforms. But a spokesperson did not say how much was directed to Massachusetts, compared to other states.

Haley, however, has another problem, Gray said: Massachusetts’ bloc of independent voters — the largest share of those not enrolled in any party in any state in the country — has historically shown a fondness for more liberal Republicans. And Haley, a self-described “unapologetically pro-life” conservative, is “not a liberal Republican,” Gray said.

On Saturday, Haley addressed abortion directly because several women asked her to, calling it a “personal issue” but one she’d seek to find consensus on, including on banning what she called late-term abortions.

“She’s not even a good fit in Massachusetts,” Gray said. “She’s trying to keep her tank filled with gas, in the form of donations, and just keep her car on the road going 10 miles per hour toward the finish line, hoping that Trump crashes into a ditch.”

Thomas Hodgson, a former Bristol County sheriff and chair of Trump’s Massachusetts campaign, said Tuesday’s vote is important to help unify the state’s GOP apparatus behind the former president ahead of November. Yes, Massachusetts Republicans are “a little more moderate” than elsewhere, he said but “I don’t think it’s going to matter.”

“It’s not her time,” Hodgson said of Haley. “It’s not meant to happen.”

Haley supporters, however, have hope, if not a sliding scale of what counts as success. Beth Childs, the chair of Brookline’s local Republican committee and a Haley supporter, said keeping Trump under 50 percent of the vote would be “incredible,” as would, of course, an outright victory.

“The expectations are that Trump is going to walk away with every state and the nomination,” Childs said. “Anything she does at this point is a win.”

Walter Anderson, a 73-year-old Millis Democrat who attended Saturday’s rally, said he hopes she remains in the race. Anderson backed Biden four years ago, but is worried about the president’s age — “He’s slowing down,” he said — and wants to see a female president.

“She’s just fresh. She’s young,” Anderson said. He also was realistic about the possibility of Haley eventually dropping out of the GOP primary. “I just hope that she doesn’t endorse Trump.”