The assassination of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, together with other senior Hezbollah and Iranian officials, marks the peak of an unprecedented offensive by Israel. This follows a year of limited fighting, initiated by relentless rocket attacks from Lebanon into Israel by Hezbollah after the Hamas attack on Oct. 7.
Recent events pose the risk of significant escalation of conflict throughout the Middle East but also offer opportunities for changing dynamics and de-escalation.
It’s hard to overstate the long-term impact of recent events on Hezbollah, but it’s important to first consider the immediate consequences. The assassination of Nasrallah, who has most symbolized the organization for decades, carried out in central Beirut, represents a severe blow to Hezbollah’s image. Moreover, as a key player in the “axis of resistance” and a regional leader, his death carries significant implications.
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The severe operational setbacks Hezbollah has faced recently will complicate its campaign and erode its confidence to operate effectively. This stems from the elimination of almost its entire senior command structure, significant degradation of weaponry, challenges in command and control, and evidence of deep intelligence infiltration.
However, the humiliation Hezbollah has endured, combined with its operational redundancies, is a good enough reason to expect a significant response against Israel. This anticipation arises from the understanding that a moderate response could reinforce Israel’s confidence in carrying out operations and perhaps a full ground incursion.
The immediate outcome might include launching heavy barrages deep into Israel. Nasrallah’s final public statements about the potential to defeat Israel in ground combat on Lebanese soil could act as a “will,” prompting Hezbollah to lure Israel into such a conflict. Furthermore, Hezbollah might attempt to orchestrate massive terrorist attacks against Jewish institutions and Israeli citizens abroad, similar to its actions in Argentina, with Iranian support, following the assassination of its previous secretary-general in the 1990s.
Hezbollah’s response will also be shaped by Iran’s stance. For Tehran, the recent sequence of events, particularly Nasrallah’s assassination, may be perceived as a historic test. The current circumstances pose a significant threat to Hezbollah’s viability as a deterrent against Israeli attacks on Iran, especially as its nuclear program reaches record levels. Additionally, these events jeopardize Hezbollah as Iran’s prime model for exporting the Islamic revolution. Consequently, Tehran is likely to support significant offensive actions to restore Hezbollah’s diminished image.
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Moreover, Iran appears to be contemplating an independent response against Israel. Such action aims to enhance deterrence and reduce the perceived risk that Tehran could be next, while also countering Israeli efforts to sever ties between members of the “axis,” particularly given the ongoing damage to Hamas and Hezbollah.
An independent response could reinforce Iran’s status both domestically and as the leader of the “axis,” especially in light of recent criticism for its perceived lack of support for Hezbollah against Israel. This action might also fulfill the principle of “mutual offensive guarantee” that Nasrallah himself presented when he joined Hamas’ attack on Israel.
However, several factors and internal Iranian debates cautioning against falling into a trap may temper the nature and intensity of an independent response. These include the increasing concern about being drawn into a conflict that could damage its technological progress, the attempts to reengage in talks with the West, and the substantial American presence in the Middle East. Israel’s recent long-range attack on Houthi infrastructure, and the response attributed to Jerusalem deep inside Iran in April, following Tehran’s unprecedented missile attack against Israel, might also shape Iranian decision-making.
A similar degree of caution has been evident in the prolonged delay in responding to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran two months ago, despite immediate threats made on the matter, including those by the Iranian supreme leader himself.
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Indeed, the Middle East is on the brink of a full-scale regional conflict. At the same time, there exists an opportunity to pivot away from the escalation we have witnessed over the past year.
In the short term, Nasrallah’s absence could diminish Hezbollah’s relative power in Lebanon and bolster its Lebanese identity over its “axis” identity. This shift may facilitate increased pressure on the organization to curb its aggressive actions. Conversely, Nasrallah’s absence might also hasten the existing chaos within the Lebanese state and prompt Iran to intensify its influence over the organization. Close observation of the level of support or criticism Hezbollah receives from other Lebanese power factions, as well as the degree of Iranian involvement, will likely provide insights into these dynamics.
Following its significant accomplishments and readiness for ground invasion, Israel might still welcome de-escalation or even consent to a limited cease-fire. This will depend on the nature and intensity of the response from Hezbollah and Iran, as well as Hezbollah’s willingness to engage in political understandings, like implementing Security Council Resolution 1701.
Hopefully, local political dynamics and overconfidence will not obstruct diplomacy. By using diplomacy after the immense show of force, the prospects for a more stable future in the Middle East could be enhanced, potentially enabling the return of hostages and displaced residents on both sides of the of the Israel-Lebanon border. The chances of this outcome may not seem high, but considering the high cost of full-scale ground combat in Lebanon, the opportunity should not be overlooked.
Assaf Zoran is a research fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.
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