US still waiting for the real recovery

Something is wrong with the American economy. Officially, we’re in the midst of a slow but steady economic recovery. Yet American families don’t seem to be benefiting.

Incomes didn’t budge in 2014. And it’s not just folks at the bottom who missed out on raises; even those toward the top saw no gains.

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What’s more, although the unemployment rate dropped from 6.6 percent to 5.6 percent throughout 2014, somehow that didn’t help people escape from poverty.

This is what we learned from the definitive numbers released today by the US Census Bureau: 2014 was another year of stagnation for households across America.

How did Americans fare in 2014?

Not that well. There’s a lot of carefully-vetted and richly-detailed information in the Census Bureau’s authoritative annual release, but the headlines tell the key story: Incomes are flat and poverty rates haven’t fallen.

Two years ago, in 2013, families smack in the middle of the US income spectrum were earning $54,462. In 2014, that number was $53,657.

The difference is small enough that you can’t really call it a decrease — given the margin of error — but it’s certainly not a raise. And it means most households are still earning substantially less than they did 2007, before the recession.

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Even if you look up the income ladder, you can’t find big raises. Households at the 95th percentile earned $208,485 in 2013, and $206,568 in 2014.

Turn to poverty and you find the same, sad pattern. In 2013, about one in seven Americans lived below the poverty line. In 2014, it was still one in seven.

This really shouldn’t be happening, given that the economy has been growing and 2014 was such a strong year for the job market.

In advance of today’s release, the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities put together a preview whose first subhead read: “Job Growth in 2014 Should Mean Lower Poverty and Higher Median Income.” They weren’t wrong. That’s how the economy is supposed to work, with job gains leading to income gains. It just isn’t happening.

Is there any good news?

There was some good news on the health insurance front. In addition to the economic numbers, the Census bureau also keeps track of who has health insurance and who’s uninsured. And 2014 saw the first, big drop in the number of uninsured Americans, in large part because 2014 was the year Obamacare really kicked in.

Separately, jobs really are coming back; that’s not just a fluke in the unemployment rate. More people were able to find full-time year-round employment in 2014 than in 2013. In fact, there have never been as many women with full-time work.

Again, though, this hasn’t translated into higher incomes and earnings.

Might 2015 be better?

It’s possible that 2015 will be the year household incomes finally surge, but there are reasons to be skeptical.

The US economy was anemic in the first quarter, and while the spring was better, this summer has exposed new headwinds, including worrisome hints of an economic slowdown in China.

Absent a late upswing, 2015 could easily turn out to be another year in the rut.

What about here in Massachusetts?

Massachusetts has been outperforming the US for decades, so it’s possible that 2014 really was brighter in the Bay State.

We’ll know soon enough. Today’s Census numbers don’t include state-by-state numbers, but tomorrow’s will. As soon as they’re available, I’ll let you know what they say about the incomes of Massachusetts families, statewide poverty rates, and how we differ from the US as a whole.

Evan Horowitz digs through data to find information that illuminates the policy issues facing Massachusetts and the US. He can be reached at evan.horowitz@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @GlobeHorowitz.