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    Laconia may live up to its rep as a bellwether

    Laconia, N.H.
    Keith Bedford/Globe Staff
    Laconia, N.H.

    Laconia, the small New Hampshire city that has in recent decades been a reliable bellwether for the state’s broader primary results, may well nail it again this year.

    The lakeside community of 16,000 chose Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton in the Democratic race, and had Donald Trump and John Kasich finishing first and second in the Republican contest.

    Jeb Bush came in third in Laconia — and Bush was only behind Ted Cruz by about less than 1,200 votes statewide, with 88 percent of precincts reporting.


    The narrow margin for third place leaves open the possibility that Laconia could continue its run as a faithful snapshot of the New Hampshire’s political preferences.

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    An analysis before Tuesday’s primary by pollster David Paleologos determined that Laconia had correctly picked the state primary winners since 2000, and it had also mimicked the second- and third-place finishers for both parties statewide.

    The results in the city, which sits between Lake Winnipesaukee and Lake Winnisquam, also came within five percentage points of the statewide results in every competitive primary since 2000.

    James Pindell of the Globe staff contributed to this article. Andy Rosen can be reached at Follow him on Twitter at @andyrosen.