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    Everything you need to know about the potential midweek nor’easter

    Lockport, MA: 03-6-2018: In blizzard conditions, Fred Silva cleared snow frosm the platform at the Rockport commuter rail station in Rockport, Mass. March 13, 2018. Photo/John Blanding, Boston Globe staff story/ ( )
    John Blanding/Globe Staff
    A man cleared snow from the platform at the Rockport commuter rail station in Rockport, Mass., earlier this month.

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    Massachusetts has seen three nor’easters so far this month — and it might see a fourth fairly soon.

    A potential snowstorm could hit the state in the middle of this coming week, according to the National Weather Service. Although the forecast could change in the days leading up to the possible nor’easter, here’s a look at what forecasters know so far.

    When could the storm arrive?

    Posts sent out from the NWS Twitter account note that the storm is on track for Wednesday into Thursday. If it stays on course, snow could start falling early Wednesday afternoon and continue into Thursday morning, said Kim Buttrick, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, on Sunday.


    The storm could also bring strong northeast winds Wednesday night, Buttrick said Monday morning.

    How likely is it that we could see snow?

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    Forecasters put the possibility of accumulation in Greater Boston at about 30 percent.

    “There’s still a lot to see with how this storm moves, but our current thoughts are that Boston and areas to the south of it could see some snow,” Buttrick told the Globe late Sunday afternoon.

    A map sent out on the NWS Twitter account Sunday afternoon showed that the coast south of Boston — including the Cape and Islands — had a “moderate” probability of receiving snow, while the rest of Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island showed a “low” potential of receiving the cold white stuff. (No areas on the map registered as having a “high” possibility of seeing snow.)

    On Sunday evening, NWS meteorologist Matt Doody told the Globe that the storm models appear to be moving further west, which slightly increases the probability that snow could accumulate in southeast New England. The potential for snow is highest in the Cape and Islands, Doody said.


    However, meteorologists say they are still evaluating what impact the potential storm could have, and the forecast has the potential to change.

    How much snow could we get?

    On Monday morning, Buttrick said forecasters have “moderate confidence in plowable snow” of maybe 2 to 5 inches, with accumulation on the lower end in the Boston area and more significant near the Cape Cod Canal, though the “actual snowfall amounts and snow-related impacts are still largely unknown.”

    Buttrick said Wednesday’s morning commute should be fine, but “it looks like it could definitely impact the Wednesday afternoon commute.”

    As of early Monday morning, the weather service said in the worst-case scenario, Boston and the coast could see about 8 inches of snow; the Cape and Islands could see 4 to 6 inches; and central to western Massachusetts could see anywhere between 7 and 11 inches.

    Buttrick also noted Monday morning that predictive models used by the weather service are still showing two possible outcomes, with one suggesting the storm will follow a path further east and away from the shoreline (although the models have recently pointed more toward a coastal effect).


    A best-case scenario map from the weather service shows that there is the possibility that the state receives no snow at all. However, forecasters point out there is a nine in 10 chance of higher snowfall than the map below.

    Meanwhile, the weather service said there is a 52 percent chance that Boston could see 2 inches or more of snow.

    Will there be coastal flooding like in other recent storms?

    Storm surge during the Thursday morning high tide could potentially cause another round of coastal flooding, Buttrick said, though she cautioned that it is still too early to be certain.

    Meteorologists encouraged anyone who could be affected to stay tuned to upcoming forecasts for more information.

    What does all this mean for this coming week’s temperatures?

    Monday is expected to reach a high of about 38 degrees, and Tuesday should reach about 34 degrees, according to the National Weather Service.

    Wednesday is expected to be cloudy with a high of 36 degrees, with snow beginning in the early afternoon, according to forecasters.

    Thursday is expected to be partly sunny with a high of 39 degrees, according to forecasters.

    Globe correspondents Andrew Grant, Jeremy C. Fox, and Debora Almeida contributed to this report.