Metro

Dave Epstein

Wednesday’s storm promises heavy, wet snow

Snow will arrive in the Boston area Wednesday late in the morning but won’t overtake the state until mid- to late afternoon.
David L Ryan/Globe Staff
Snow will arrive in the Boston area Wednesday late in the morning but won’t overtake the state until mid- to late afternoon.

Here we go again. I suppose there’s some comfort in the fact that all of us are going through these weather events together. This upcoming storm will be more of a kick in the shins than a full-blown knockout.

The snow will be heaviest overnight, as the low-pressure area makes its closest pass to southern New England.

No two nor’easters are alike. This storm will produce less snow than the previous one, and the wind won’t be as powerful as the first two. The overall structure of the storm just isn’t the same as the past nor’easters, which is a good thing

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Generally, we are looking at 5 to 9 inches of snow around Greater Boston, but there might be pockets of 8 to 12 inches well southwest of Worcester in some of the same areas as a week ago. There’s going to be a sharp cutoff to the heavy snow near and north of the Massachusetts Turnpike. Interior Connecticut will see the greatest chance of going over a foot. If the trend south continues overnight, we would see even less snow and some areas could miss it completely north of the Pike. Let’s hope this is the case.

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I think cancellations Wednesday should be limited to the afternoon. While there could be snow earlier, it will have trouble sticking on roads until nearer to sunset.

Overnight Wednesday is when most of the snow will accumulate. This is because that’s when the core of the storm moves in, and it will be dark, so it’s easier for snow to stick.

Measuring snowfall this time of the year can be very tricky because you’ll have really different amounts on your driveway versus on a picnic bench. One of the reasons why I’m putting 5 to 10 inches in a wide swath is because just a slight shift southward by the storm would put Boston at the lower end of that, or if the storm continues on its present track Boston would get close to that 8- or 9-inch amount.

Some coastal flooding is likely at the time of high tide early Wednesday and where the shore has already seen damage this month, it can certainly be exacerbated.

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The heavier, wet nature of the snow means more chances for power outages. The Cape and the Islands will have the wettest snow, trending to be less heavy west of Route 128. But the Cape and Islands will also see the least snow, so there may not be enough to cause problems.

There are wind warnings posted, and southeastern Massachusetts has the highest risk of power outages during this storm. That said, with so much damage this month, there are still plenty of branches that wouldn’t take much for them to fall.

March 2018 already ranks among the snowiest of Marches, and the ranking will be moving higher Wednesday into Thursday.