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Warning to Biden, Sanders, Warren: In N.H. primary, five months often changes everything

Arizona Senator John McCain and his wife Cindy, in Manchester, N.H., celebrated McCain’s come-frombehind victory in the New Hampshire presidential primary over Texas Governor George W. Bush. Monica Almeida/New York Times/File 2000

What a difference five months can make in the New Hampshire presidential primary.

At this point in the 1980 presidential cycle, Senator Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts led incumbent President Jimmy Carter by a 2-to-1 ratio, but Carter beat Kennedy by 10 points. In 1984, Senator Gary Hart was in fifth place only to go on to stun the political world with his Granite State win over a former vice president.

In 1991, Bill Clinton wasn’t even a candidate at this point. In 2003, John Kerry was badly lagging Howard Dean. And five months before the 2000 New Hampshire primary, John McCain was in third place in a University of New Hampshire poll, some 33 points behind George W. Bush. In each of those cases, New Hampshire eventually helped them all become the comeback kid — Clinton surged into second, Kerry won, and McCain leapfrogged George W. Bush, beating him by 19 points.

Texas Governor George W. Bush danced with N.H. Executive Councilor Ruth Griffin at a campaign stop in Milford, N.H. on Jan. 29, 2000.JOHN TLUMACKI/GLOBE STAFF/FILE 2000

“History tells us that predicting what will happen five months from the New Hampshire primary might be a bad idea,” said Terry Shumaker, a former chair of the New Hampshire Political Library who backs current national front-runner Joe Biden.

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The drip-drip of polls and the endless speculation on cable news leaves those most interested in politics constantly playing out who is up and who is down.

But this loses sight of the fact that most of the 250,000 or so people who will vote in the New Hampshire Democratic primary next year haven’t begun to pay attention — and if they have, they could still change their minds. (Nationally, a recent poll found only 9 percent of Democratic primary voters have definitively decided on a favored candidate.)

“If New Hampshire has proved anything, the washing machine doesn’t really start until a month before,” Neil Levesque, director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College, said about the primary, expected to take place on Feb. 11. “For now it is anyone’s guess.”

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As it stands now, Biden, the former vice president; Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont; and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts are statistically tied for first place in the state.

But there is turbulence: Biden’s polling numbers are falling and Warren has all the momentum, according to recent surveys and insiders.

Sanders, meanwhile, ousted his top two staffers in New Hampshire over the weekend and is trying to find a way to repeat his primary win from 2016, when he got more than 60 percent of the vote.

Then there is everyone else running. If one of the front-runners fails, their support could shift to others. In recent weeks both South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Kamala Harris of California have been staking out moderate positions, particularly on health care. That could position them as a logical next place for moderates to go, should Biden continue to drop.

Or maybe not.

Senator Edward M. Kennedy greeted voters outside Blessed Sacrament Parish Hall in Manchester, N.H.Bob Dean/Globe Staff File/Globe Staff

“What has surprised me is how little the race has changed over the year,” said Michael Dennehy, a New Hampshire-based adviser to McCain during his underdog Granite State primary victories in 2000 and 2008. “I am beginning to wonder if anyone not in the top three can break through.”

The last time a New Hampshire primary was this up for grabs was the 2008 Republican primary. Five months out from that contest, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani were in a dogfight. There were some signs that McCain had hit the bottom and might be starting to come back. And, indeed, the Arizona senator eventually did.

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There are examples where the front-runners five months out do win. In 2008, Hillary Clinton led in New Hampshire five months before the primary, but her win on primary night was a surprise upset because Barack Obama had been leading polls in the final days.

In 2012, Romney led the full year before the primary. And by this point in 2016, Sanders and Donald Trump held the leads in their respective primaries. Each won the primary by more than 20 points.

That said, how candidates are trying to win the 2020 New Hampshire primary is different from campaigns in the past. Increasingly, performing well nationally — in polls and with fund-raising from small-dollar donors around the country — is vital to secure spots on a debate stage and show momentum.

As the largest field of presidential candidates in history continues to shrink from 25 to something more like 10 candidates, the levels of support from each candidate will reshuffle.

Which is to say: Stay tuned.

Correction: An earlier version of this story misstated the year John McCain beat George W. Bush in the New Hampshire Republican primary. It was 2000.


James Pindell can be reached at james.pindell@globe.com. Follow him Pindell on Twitter @jamespindell or subscribe to his Ground Game newsletter on politics: http://pages.email.bostonglobe.com/GroundGameSignUp

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