NEW YORK — A sweeping national effort to extend health coverage to millions of Americans will leave out two-thirds of the poor blacks and single mothers and more than half of the low-wage workers who do not have insurance, the very kinds of people that the program was intended to help, according to an analysis of census data by The New York Times.
Because they live in states largely controlled by Republicans that have declined to participate in a vast expansion of Medicaid, the medical insurance program for the poor, they are among the 8 million Americans who are impoverished, uninsured, and ineligible for help. The federal government will pay for the expansion through 2016 and no less than 90 percent of costs in later years.
Those excluded will be stranded without insurance, stuck between people with slightly higher incomes who will qualify for federal subsidies on the new health exchanges that began operating this week, and those who are poor enough to qualify for Medicaid in its current form, which has income ceilings as low as $11 a day in some states.
People shopping for insurance on the health exchanges are already discovering this bitter twist.
"How can somebody in poverty not be eligible for subsidies?" an unemployed health care worker in Virginia asked through tears. The woman, who identified herself only as Robin L. because she does not want potential employers to know she is down on her luck, thought she had run into a computer problem when she went online Tuesday and learned that she would not qualify.
At 55, she has high blood pressure, and she had been waiting for the law to take effect so she could get coverage. Before she lost her job and her house and had to move in with her brother in Virginia, she lived in Maryland, a state that is expanding Medicaid.
"Would I go back there?" she asked. "It might involve me living in my car. I don't know. I might consider it."
The 26 states that have rejected the Medicaid expansion are home to about half of the country's population, but about two-thirds of poor, uninsured blacks and single mothers. About 60 percent of the country's uninsured working poor are in those states.
"The irony is that these states that are rejecting Medicaid expansion — many of them Southern — are the very places where the concentration of poverty and lack of health insurance are the most acute," said Dr. H. Jack Geiger, a founder of the community health center model. "It is their populations that have the highest burden of illness and costs to the entire health care system."
The disproportionate impact on poor blacks introduces the prickly issue of race into the already politically charged atmosphere around the health care law. Every state in the Deep South, with the exception of Arkansas, has rejected the expansion.
Opponents of the expansion say that they are against it on exclusively economic grounds, and that the demographics of the South make it easy to say that race is an issue when it is not.
In Mississippi, Republican leaders note that a large share of people in the state are on Medicaid already, and that, with an expansion, about a third of the state would have been insured through the program. Even supporters of the health law say that eventually covering 10 percent of that cost would have been onerous for a predominantly rural state with a modest tax base.
"Any additional cost in Medicaid is going to be too much," said state Senator Chris McDaniel, a Republican, who opposes expansion.
The federal government provided the tally of how many states were not expanding Medicaid for the first time Tuesday. It included states like New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee that might still decide to expand Medicaid before coverage takes effect in January.
Mississippi has the largest percentage of poor and uninsured people in the country at 13 percent. Willie Charles Carter, an unemployed 53-year-old whose most recent job was as a maintenance worker at a public school, has had problems with his leg since surgery last year.
His income is below Mississippi's ceiling for Medicaid — which is about $3,300 a year — but he has no dependent children, so he does not qualify. And his income is too low to make him eligible for subsidies on the federal health exchange.
"You got to be almost dead before you can get Medicaid in Mississippi," he said.
He does not know what he will do when the clinic where he goes for medical care, the Good Samaritan Health Center in Greenville, closes next month because of lack of funding.
"I'm scared all the time," he said. "I just walk around here with faith in God to take care of me."